6/5/07 Daily Prospect Report

First , I hope you all like the new look to the site. It’s nothing fancy, but I was tired of the “red alert”. It was a little hard on the eyes for me, so I figured it had to be the same for you readers. The side bars seem totally huge, unfortunately there’s no way for me to shrink them down.  I switched it back. It looks fine on Firefox, but upon checking the site on Explorer it’s a little messed up. Sadly, not enough people are hip to Firefox yet, so back to “red attack”.

l boros had a revealing interview with tonight’s starter for Palm Beach, Adam Ottavino. He speaks on how he’s improved his change up and how it’s helped him neutralize lefties, and the stats bear that out. Adam allowed a .892 OPS against southpaws last year, this year so far just .596. There’s also that whole sinker ball controversy. Says Ottavino:

Now, I’m not saying that I don’t agree with the philosophy of pitching to contact, and I guess that’s what the 2-seamer’s all about. But to me, the whole key is not to leave pitches over the fat part of the plate. And I can control my 4-seamer right now a heck of a lot better right now than I can control my 2. So right now, I’m just a work in progress. The 2-seamer’s gonna come, but right now I’m trying to refine the package I already have before I throw something else in there and totally rely on something different.

I wish someone would find a way to get that over to Dave Duncan re:Anthony Reyes. After witnessing Todd Wellemeyer walk 6 batters tonight, it’s painfully obvious to everyone Reyes doesn’t belong in Memphis. Sorry, no more Reyes soapboxes, I promise.

6 Swing players have been named to the Midwest League All Star game. Brandon Buckman and Christian Lopez have both been named starters. Joining them are pitchers P.J. Walters, Elvis Hernandez, Kenny Maiques and Brandon Dickson. (No love for Shaun Garceau or Tyler Herron?)

Speaking of the Swing, Dan at Get Up, Baby! has the stock report for the Quad Cities roster in the beginnings of a promising new series he’s doing. On to the games-

Memphis 2, Las Vegas 4

• Mike Parisi allowed 4 runs on 7 hits, which included 2 homers. He gave up 4 walks with 6 K’s over 7 frames. He extracted 9 ground ball outs.
• Ryan Christianson and Tagg Bozied drove in the Cardinal runs.
• Rick Ankiel went 1 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout.
• John Rodriguez went 1 for 4 with a double.
• Mark Worrell pitched 2 innings of 1 hit ball, striking out 2.

Springfield 5, Tulsa 4

• Joe Mather drove in 5 runs on a double and a HR. He seems to have regained his power stroke as of late, as that’s his 2nd homer in 2 games. Since June 1, Mather is hitting .385/.471/.923.
• Mitchell Boggs allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5. He got 10 ground ball outs.
• Chris Perez picked up his 13th save of the season, albeit was a rocky one. He allowed a 2 run homer.

Palm Beach 0, Clearwater 8

• Adam Ottavino got knocked around a bit tonight. He allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks while striking out 6. The 3 runs came off a 3 run homer.
• While you could say Ottavino got hit, Matthew Trent got hammered. He allowed 5 runs in 1 inning.
• James Rapoport went 2 for 4 with a steal.
• Nathan Southard went 2 for 3 with a double.

Quad Cities 13, Wisconsin 5 (Game 1, 7 innings)

• Brandon Buckman went 3 for 4 with a homer.
• Jaime Landin, Luke Gorsett and Christian Reyes all had two hit, and all had doubles.
• Elvis Hernandez allowed just 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks, striking out 5.
• P.J. Walters had an off night, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits, including a solo HR. He walked a batter and threw 2 wild pitches while striking out 5.

Quad Cities 3, Wisconsin 2 (Game 2, 7 innings)

• Tyler Herron is really on a roll as of late. He allowed just a hit in 3 innings, while striking out 6.
• Brad Furnish was also pretty dominant, he allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk over 4 innings while striking out 9 batters. He did however throw 3 wild pitches, perhaps catcher Christian Reyes had something to do with that.
• Tommy Pham hit a single, drew a walk, stole a base and was picked off at 1st.
• Wilmer Alvarado went 1 for 3 with a double and walk.
• Brandon Buckman went 2 for 4 with a double.
• Chris Grossman went 2 for 4.

Kevin Goldstein’s Top 50

Tired of hearing about the draft yet? I’m not! I feel like a veritable Mel Kiper Jr. relaying all this draft mania every few hours, only I’m not a member of the press, I don’t have any real inside info, and I come minus the frightening hair-do. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein lists his Top 50 talents of the draft, I thought I’d share the blurbs regarding some of the names connected with the Cardinals. You need a subscription to view the entire article, just pay for it already, you know you’ve been putting it off for too long now.

4. Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
Pros: Big switch-hitting catcher with plus power from both sides; professional approach at the plate; outstanding arm strength.
Cons: Performance this year has simply been good, not lights-out as some expected; most scouting directors think he can stay at catcher, but not all do; play seems lackadaisical at times.

13. Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (CT)
Pros: Classic frame, mid-90s fastball, and a curve that rates among the best in the high school class; very good changeup for teenager.
Cons: Has not lived up to expectations this year, with fluctuating velocities and control issues.

18. Michael Main, RHP, DeLand HS (FL)
Pros: Outstanding athlete who has 2nd-3rd round talent as a center fielder; excellent command of low 90s fastball that touches 95, and backs it up with a solid curve.
Cons: Little feel for changeup; struggled down the stretch both on the mound and at the plate.

19. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (NC)
Pros: Top prep lefty has gotten into the mid-90s this spring; at 6-foot-5, his well-built frame creates no concerns about stamina. Excellent athlete.
Cons: Three-quarters arm slot prevent him from taking advantage of height; breaking ball is sweepy and slurvy.

23. Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
Pros: Top college closer in draft can dominate in short spurts with classic fastball/slider combination; has touched triple-digits on occasion and slider is just as effective with late, heavy break.
Cons: Has only been pitching for three years; lacks polish, clean mechanics, and plus command.

28. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas
Pros: Top of the scale power rates a pure 80 on 20-80 scouting scale; he set a new Texas home run mark with 28 in 223 at-bats, eclipsing the previous mark of 20; power isn’t his only tool–also a decent runner with a solid arm.
Cons: Prone to strikeouts in bunches, as his swing is not one with natural loft, with more of a pure loopy uppercut; some scouts point to several home runs that were a product of aluminum bats.

30. Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
Pros: The six-foot-11 righthander has touched 99 mph in the past, and arguably has a higher ceiling than any player in the draft; curveball flashes as plus at times; mechanics are surprisingly refined for a player with his size and lack of experience.
Cons: Rarely pitched as freshman or sophomore because of a basketball commitment, then was practically shut down after 78 innings due to a tired arm; before the shutdown, he became less and less effective as season wore on.

32. Jack McGeary, LHP, Roxbury Latin HS (MA)
Pros: Highly advanced prep lefty; 88-90 mph fastball play up because of movement and command; curveball features strong break; excellent feel for changeup; excellent makeup.
Cons: Below-average velocity; uneven senior year–looking like a surefire first-round pick one day, and a player who needs three years of college the next.

35. Mitch Canham, C, Oregon State
Pros: Offensive-minded catcher has excellent contact skills and a good approach; plus arm; athletic and agile behind the plate.
Cons: Fairly new to catching, so he has understandably raw receiving skills; his power is a potential subject of debate.

36. Todd Frazier, SS, Rutgers
Pros: Another 20-20 performer with 22 blasts and 25 swipes in 61 games; fundamentally sound defender; grinder mentality.
Cons: Lacks the athleticism to play shortstop at the next level, profiling as more of a third baseman or corner outfielder; swing has many moving parts, leading to an above-average strikeout rate.

41. Brett Cecil, LHP, Maryland
Pros: Electric fastball/slider combination, using low-90s heater to set up the breaking ball, which rates as a better pitch.
Cons: Has struggled in second half of the season, especially with command.

I included Canham because the Cardinals drafted him in the 43rd round, apparently just for the heck of it as Canham was most certainly going back to school. Now he’s a 2nd rounder at worst. He’s no Wieters, so if Wieters doesn’t do the predicted Boras plummet, Canham might make for a nice sandwich-round pick. Outside of Anderson, this team seriously lacks depth at the catcher position. If Canham doesn’t cut it behind the plate he could be shuffled to 3rd or an outfield corner.

Mock Drafts gone Wild!

See below or click here for yesterday’s report.  Mark Hamilton had himself one heckuva night.

Over at Knucklecurve, Geoff Young lists a number of different sites and blogs with mock drafts. Here’s who others have the Cards selecting in the first round.

Outside the Beltway:

18. Madison Bumgardner, LHP, H.S., NC
36. Kyle Russell, RF, University of Texas

Real GM Baseball:

18. Jack McGeary, LHP, H.S., Mass

“McGeary is signed with Stanford and has said it will come down to money for him to sign a pro deal now. He might be the most complete high school pitcher in the country this year.”

MLB Draft University:

18. Michael Main, RHP/OF, H.S, Florida

Post Game Pub:

18. Matt LaPorta 1B R/R Florida Sr.
36. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian

Chop-n-Change

18. Michael Main

They could opt to go with one of the prep lefties still on the board but Main is polished and a great athlete with good projection in his body. He could be a top of the rotation starter if he improves on his secondary offerings. The Cardinals could actually be one of the few teams that looks to draft Main as an outfielder.

Phuture Phillies (Hey, this site looks strangely familiar. Oh, WordPress and your wonderful templates. It’s an excellent site, by the way. I’m going to have to start stealing this guy’s ideas along with his look. 😉 )

18. Matt Harvey, RHP, HS (Connecticut)

This makes sense to me. Jocketty isn’t afraid of Scott Boras, and the Cardinals don’t have a ton of pitching in the minors. Harvey has big time upside, and will only slide outside of the Top 10 because he is advised by Boras.

3 Guys and a Sportspage

18. Madison Bumgardner
36. Kyle Russell

Elysian Blue

18. St. Louis Cardinals – Matt LaPorta, 1B, University of Florida

MLB.com

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University

There was a temptation to put a Boras guy here because the Cardinals can do that, but it didn’t make sense to force the issue. That being said, if Andrew Brackman bounces back with a strong regional start later this week, he could very well figure into the picture here. Instead, I’ll go with a “safe” pick in Arrieta. He’s had an up-and-down season, but he turned in a dandy at UNLV last week and will get a regional start in to give scouts one last look. The Cardinals have enjoyed the Lone Star State in recent drafts and even took a Horned Frog pitcher last year, Brad Furnish.
Last week’s projection: Matt LaPorta

Keith Law, ESPN.com (Subscription)

18. Matt Wieters
36. Brett Cecil

Jim Callis, Baseball America (Subscription)

18. Matt Wieters

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus on MLB.com’s webcast this weekend.

18. Andrew Brackman

Me a week ago

18. Matt Dominguez, 3B Chatsworth HS (CA)
36. Brett Cecil, LHP, University of Maryland
71. Nick Tepesch, RHP, Blue Springs HS (MO)
82. James Adkins, LHP, University of Tennessee
112. Tony Thomas Jr., IF, Florida State
142. Michael Taylor, OF, Stanford
172. Brandon Hicks, SS, Texas A & M

fewgoodcards at Minor League Ball

18. Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas HS
36. Peter Kozma, SS, Oklahoma HS
71. Nathan Vineyard, LHP, Georgia HS
82. Wes Roemer, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
112. Eric Sogard, 2B, Arizona State
142. Dan Schlereth, LHRP, Arizona
172. D.J. Jones, OF, Alabama HS

Last but not least, my latest futile attempt. Behold! Mock draft 2.0.

18. Michael Main
36. Brett Cecil
71. Jon Gilmore, IF, HS, Iowa
82. Matt Thomson, RHP, Santa Rosa Junior College
112. Eric Sogard
142. David Duncan, LHP, Georgia Tech
172. Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech

Summing it all up:

Wieters still seems like a pipe-dream. A lot of people are saying Michael Main, and I have to say I’d be happy with that pick overall. I have flashes of Rick Ankiel run through my head, but only because they are both 2-way 1st rounders from Florida. Bumgardner has been seen as high as 10 on some mocks, I’d be thrilled if he fell to 18. Kyle Russell is very intriguing to me for #36. He led the NCAA in slugging .877 (!!!) in a big park. He’s also the one who set the all time Cape Cod League record in K’s (64 in 126 at bats). He’s struck out in 28% of his at bats this season, but oh, that power. He also knows how to take a walk with a 17% BB rate, but some of that has to be free passes of the frightened sort. Jack McGeary seems to me as more of a sandwich round pick. For someone who is known as more of a finesse lefty with great mechanics, he walked too many batters and at times his fastball was topping out at 87. I’m not sold. Andrew Brackman scares the bejeebus out of me. How does one go down with a tired arm after 78 innings? He could only cut it as a middle reliever with that sort of stamina, though his stuff is top shelf. If they could find a way to help him grow in endurance, well great…it just seems like such a risk. I’m still not sold on Arrieta, it’s interesting how Jon Mayo at MLB.com has him at 18 while almost everyone else has him in the supplemental round, where he would be a decent pick. Just because the Cards have a history of drafting college pitchers in the first round doesn’t mean they should settle for the “safe” pick.

As far as Mock 2.0 goes, I really like Sogard. He sure has that Dustin Pedroia thing going for him. Jon Gilmore I picked for a few reasons,  most of all he’s a hometown product here in Iowa. He’s been a big fish in a small pond here, but I’m told he has good power/batting average potential. I’m still sticking with Brett Cecil in the sandwich part of the 1st round. I couldn’t resist the Cardinals picking up a pitcher named Dave Duncan, if for any other reason then it would make for cheezy humor from play by play announcers. He has a good split finger fastball and decent fastball/change mix.  Brian Rike is a powerful college outfielder. Jeff Albert has an interview with him at Baseball Analysts and some video of his swing. The Cards would be very lucky to nab him if he’s still available in the 5th round.