Daily Prospect Report 6/7/07

Be sure to read erik’s review of the Cardinals draft. I think he’s spot on in his review.
Memphis 8, Alberquerque 11

• Disgusting loss. Anthony Reyes throws 7 innings allowing 7 hits and striking out 6 against 2 walks for 2 measly earned runs. Brian Falkenborg and Hugo Castellanos proceeded to blow it. Poor Reyes, he’s really getting the short end of the proverbial stick. Falkenborg couldn’t even get an out in the 9th. Just sad.
• Rick Ankiel went 2-for-4 with a double and a homer.
• John Nelson went 1-for-3 with a HR and a walk.
• Nick Stavinoha showed off his arm with two outfield assists.

Springfield 10, Tulsa 3

• Joe Mather went 0-for-2 but drew 2 walks.
• Jared Hoffpauir went 4-for-5 with a double.
• Tyler Greene went 1-for-2 hitting a HR plus a BB.
• Juan Richardson went 1-for-3 with a double and 2 walks.
• Jaime Garcia had a solid outing. 6.1 IP striking out 6 against 2 walks. Only allowing 3 runs Garcia put up a quality start for Springfield.
• Michael Cooper struck out 1 in a scoreless 1.2 innings.
• Jason Motte struck out 1 in his scoreless inning.

Palm Beach 1, Tampa 9

• Golden Sombrero for AJ Van Slyke.
• Gary Daley imploded. In 1.1 IP he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 striking out 0. All said he got lit up for 6 earned runs.
• Luke Gregerson pitched a scoreless inning striking out 1.
• Brandon Yarbrough went 2-for-4.

Quad Cities 3, Cedar Rapids 7

• Daryl Jones went 2-for-4.
• Christian Reyes went deep in a 1-for-4 effort.
• Shaun Garceau, who’d been lights out recently, scuffled tonight with 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 IP. He struck out 5 and walked just 1 but Cedar Rapids had 9 hits including 2 HR.
• Eddie Degerman came in to relieve Garceau for 3 innings. 4 Ks, no walks and 2 hits including a HR equating to 2 earned runs.

The first 5 rounds-trying to digest it all

Well, it’s been a pretty long and exhausting day, but I’m still up for taking a look at these first 7 picks the Cardinals have made–

First of all, the Pete Kozma kerfluffle. At this point, I don’t know what to make of it. Goold says the Cardinals first choice was right-handed high school pitcher Blake Beavan, which would’ve been nice but he got nabbed by the Rangers with the previous pick. There was a good deal of others I would’ve rather seen the Cardinals select at that point, and they very possibly could’ve picked up a similar player in Justin Jackson in the next round.

Jim Callis, a guy who’s been in this biz a long time, had Kozma going to the Reds with the 15th pick, if that’s any consolation. I keep reading about him not having any stand out tool, but he’s 19 (did he flunk kindergarten, or something?) so it’s not like he’s stuck in neutral. Per the official site–

Comparisons for Kozma vary widely. The first name Luhnow dropped was that of Nomar Garciaparra, but Gossett also drew parallels to Jack Wilson and Mark Loretta. The club believes Kozma will hit for average and will be able to play shortstop in the Major Leagues.

“He’s got a great swing that doesn’t need to be changed from aluminum to wood,” Luhnow said. “He should have a successful pro career. And being a middle infielder, he won’t get blocked by anybody ahead of him, despite the fact that we took a shortstop [Tyler Greene] two years ago and we’ve signed a lot of shortstops out of Latin America. He’s the type of guy that, if he hits — and we’re pretty confident he’ll hit — he’s going to play every day.”

Jack Wilson? Mark Loretta? Let’s hope for much better then that. At least he adds depth at a position the Cardinals are lacking in, all I can say is I hope his ceiling is higher then projected, but I’m not holding my breath. Luhnow says he could develop power later, a la Nomar Garciaparra. I think we’d all love that. I lived in the Tulsa area for 5 years, they have had some pretty good players that have come out of that area (Brad Penny comes immediately to mind.) I think it’s OK.

The Clayton Mortenson pick is what made me angry. I just don’t get it. They could’ve had Harvey or Cecil to name just a couple and they ended up picking a college senior because of his potential? This smacks of the Gary Daley pick from last year (who has sucked so far), only Daley was drafted in the 3rd round and he and Mortenson are the same age. The fact that he posted a 3.92 ERA pitching half of his games in an extreme pitchers park for Gonzaga is less then encouraging. His defensive independent ERA however is a much more plausible 2.91. He was ranked by BA as the #119th best player in the draft. He would’ve been a nice pick…in the 4th round.

Then things stayed weird. The Cardinals selected David Kopp of Clemson in the 2nd round. Says BA of Kopp-

Somewhat enigmatic, Kopp has been inconsistent with his control and velocity, but at his best he flashed middle-of-the-rotation stuff. He stayed behind and on top of the ball better during his delivery this spring and improved his direction to the plate. His fastball ranges from 91-96 mph, sitting at 92. He gets sink and run from his three-quarters arm slot, though he doesn’t repeat his release point. His changeup is a weapon, but his 81-83 mph slider shows potential of becoming a legitimate put-away pitch. He needs to improve his mental approach and confidence, especially in tight situations. Kopp has more upside than the typical college righthander in this year’s draft, and he could be taken as early as the second round.

Well, at least they don’t think he’s a total reach. He struck out 75 in 98 innings while walking 25 and giving up 7 HR’s, not anything to write home about. His peripherals show he’s actually pitched worse then his ERA indicated, as his DERA was 4.18 verses his actual ERA of 3.67, albeit the ACC is a tough conference to pitch in. I see a couple of running themes here, the mysterious “upside” word, college pitchers, and sinkerballers.

With the next pick, the Cardinals seemed to reach again, picking yet another college pitcher in Jess Todd of Arkansas. Todd opened the season as the Razorback’s closer but pitched mostly in the rotation. I liked finding this scouting report at BA-

Arkansas has a weekend rotation made up of pitchers who could go in the first three rounds of the draft: Nick Schmidt, Duke Welker and Todd. Todd has the best stuff of the trio, starting with a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard mid-80s slider that ranks as one of the best in the draft. He also throws an upper-80s two-seamer and a circle changeup that acts like a splitter.

He’s said to have a violent delivery, which means he could end up in the bullpen. College…check….sinker…check…”upside”…sure. I actually kinda like this pick, he’s been a strikeout machine this season with 128 K’s in 93 innings, while walking 26. The crazy thing is, they still could’ve had Matt Harvey at this point.

Then more craziness ensued. The Cardinals took David Delscalso with the 112th pick (above Harvey) Who? Here’s BA’s blurb-

He controls the strike zone, takes a healthy hack from the left side and has a knack for getting the fat part of the bat on the ball. His thick body turns some scouts off, though he has some athleticism. He’s a third baseman primarily but has played some second, and his bat would play better there. He’s an average runner and could go in the first 10 rounds.

Wow, he might have gone in the first 10, but juuust to be safe the Cardinals picked him in the third… Absurd. Anyway, this had to be driven by performance. Delscalso put up some impressive numbers in a pitchers park against one of college baseball’s most competitive schedules and posted a .397/.474/.569 line. If he can move to second and rake then I guess it ain’t half bad, but they didn’t have to use their Go-go gadget arms to reach that far up for a 3rd baseman with such limited power. Adjusted for park and strength of schedule, his OPS comes out to be 1.209.

I have to say after witnessing all this, I was getting pretty discouraged. Then they drafted Kyle Russell in the 4th round. Ow, heck yeah! Here’s what Kevin Goldstein had to say about Russell-

28. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas
Pros: Top of the scale power rates a pure 80 on 20-80 scouting scale; he set a new Texas home run mark with 28 in 223 at-bats, eclipsing the previous mark of 20; power isn’t his only tool–also a decent runner with a solid arm.
Cons: Prone to strikeouts in bunches, as his swing is not one with natural loft, with more of a pure loopy uppercut; some scouts point to several home runs that were a product of aluminum bats.

Russell led the NCAA with a .877 slugging percentage. For Texas, which has a home park factor of .870. Park and schedule adjusted, his OPS comes out to a whopping 1.455. I am a little worried about the K’s, apparently so were a lot of teams. He still ranked high by KG at #25 and Baseball America at #35 nationally, and he came to the Cards with the #142nd pick. Luhnow redeemed himself a good bit with that one. His TTO (three true outcomes, calculated (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB)) rating this season was a McGwire-esque .513. Even if he turns out to be Rob Deer or Jay Buhner, I’d be thrilled. Now you have to wonder…at what level does he start at? I don’t know, but they better pay him or he could head back to Texas for his junior year, which would be a real shame.

For the last pick of the day, Luhnow picked Thomas Eager, a sophomore from Cal Poly. More BA blurbage:

Cal Poly had a disappointing 2006 season despite a solid rotation that included third-rounder Gary Daley (Cardinals) and sixth-rounder Bud Norris (Astros). Eager stepped forward more than any other Mustang to replace them, emerging as the ace and surpassing both Daley and Norris in terms of performance. His 10 victories left him two shy of the school record, but despite his performance, most scouts see him profiling better as a middle reliever or even a closer. Eager’s delivery resembles that of former “Nasty Boys” closer Rob Dibble, as he comes aggressively at hitters with his lead arm in an almost violent motion. If only he threw as hard as Dibble. The delivery creates some deception for his firm stuff, a 90-91 mph fastball that has hit 93 and features average sink, and a hard slider. Eager comes hard after hitters and doesn’t change speeds much, which also feeds the Dibble comparison. He’s fairly emotional on the mound, which works for him and against him at times.

BA ranked him #133rd nationally overall. Eager struck out 99 in 126 innings this season, while walking 50 and allowing 6 HRs. (Against a tough schedule) I’m not a fan of picking another future reliever with control issues, but maybe he can work on taking some of the effort out of his delivery and stop walking guys. Sure, no problem. College arm…sink…Nasty boys. Fits the MO for the day.

All and all, there’s not a lot to like here outside of Russell and I suppose Kozma. (I can live with him, doesn’t mean I like the pick completely, per se.) I’m not really liking so far how it went down. Time will tell, but the extreme tendency for college arms who don’t project as much more then bottom of the rotation starters or middle relievers is pretty disheartening. We’ll see how they do tomorrow, they still have some interesting names on the board.

MLB 2007 Rule 4 Amateur Baseball Draft

[Update 4:54 – azruavatar] I’m taking off for a few hours. I’m perfectly furious over the first two picks we made. Maybe when I cool off, it won’t look so bad but I’m really frustrated right now. We’ll have some draft reactions for you over the next few days and we’ll keep up the Daily Prospect Reports as well.

Thanks everyone for stopping by today. We’ve seen 3x the traffic today that we’ve ever seen before in a single day. I hope you enjoyed following the draft with me even if it didn’t go as we may have wanted. [End Update]

Are you ready to rumble?!?!?! Oops, wrong sport (does anyone else remember being a kid and thinking how cool wrestling was — ya, that was a while ago).

Well, we’ve been coving the upcoming draft for a couple weeks now here at FR and now that it’s here I’m pretty excited. I’ll be covering the cardinals picks as they happen from 1pm CST to 5pm CST on ESPN2. Hopefully, erik can sneak by with some wisdom from time to time but I’m sure that we’ll both be breaking down the draft for the next couple days. VeB will have periodic updates as well (draft thread) so keep an eye over there.

I remember last June when they had the draft. I was at work in downtown STL and I was checking VeB on a semi-regular basis (I’m an intern, we don’t actually do anything) until the site crashed. I was really distressed at the time. Now I took a day off explicitly so I could watch it be televised — yes I’m that much of a baseball geek. I’m also assuming since you’re here checking in on the draft you’ve got a little bit of baseball geek in you too.

So sit back and enjoy the draft.

Cardinals Pick #18 Peter Kozma – Here’s what BA has to say about Kozma who they ranked number 39:

Scouting Report: There may not be a true middle infielder drafted in the first round this year, but Kozma is as good a candidate as any. He impressed scouting directors when his team made a swing through Florida in late March, and he had a three-homer game in an Oklahoma 6-A playoff contest. Kozma has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup. Coming into the spring, some scouts questioned whether he’d be a long-term shortstop, but he has no doubters now. A Wichita State recruit, Kozma draws raves for his consistency and energy as well.

From ESPN who rates on the 20-80 scale, Kozma gets solid 55-ish scores across the board excepting power. Here’s their summary:

Best asset is his feel for the game; really knows how to play. Reminds of a young Michael Young. Has good baseball instincts. Makes contact and has good strike-zone awareness. Sees ball well. Has some pop out in front with bat. Good baserunner. Solid-average arm, especially when moving in. Showed good range to his left. Will be 8-10 homer type, alley-to-alley hitter. Could be a good No.2 bat. Can steal a base, likes to run, makes things happen.

Michael Young (pre-2007) would be nice but I hope he’s better than that defensively. A 55 score is a slightly above average player. A 60 is an allstar caliber player. Basically with their first draft pick, they cardinals failed to pick what ESPN’s scouts think is even an allstar caliber player. But he’s got a great feel for the game.

Cardinals #36 Pick – RHP Clayton Mortenson. From MILB:

While there are often college seniors who make very good pros, it’s rare for there to be one like Mortensen, a legitimate “prospect” on the rise in his senior season. He’s got three usable pitches and a body frame that appears able to handle added strength, which could make his fastball even better. He should be a very intriguing senior sign this summer.

This is worse than the Kozma pick. Horrible. Hate the Cardinals draft so far. Hate. Hate Hate. From BA:

Until this season, the gangly Mortensen was all projection and little production. His velocity took a jump (up to 92 mph) last summer in the West Coast Collegiate League, but his command remained spotty. He was shellacked at Arizona in his first start this season, but since then has had some of the best stuff in the West. Mortensen features a heavy 90-94 mph fastball with excellent sink. His secondary stuff grades as average now, with future plus grades as well: a hard slider and changeup featuring deceptive arm speed. His command is below-average. He’s a senior sign with upside, though, and could go as high as the third round.

Wrong Baseball America. Luhnow and crew were so desperate to get this third rounder they took him 36 overall. (I think I’ve died a little on the inside after the first two picks).

#1 – Tampa Bay – LHP David Price – MILB, ESPN, BA

#2 – Royals – SS Mike Moustakas – MILB, ESPN

#3 – Cubs – 3B Josh Vitters – MILB, ESPN

#4 – Pirates – LHP Daniel Moskos – MILB, ESPN

#5 – Orioles – C Matt Wieters – MILB, ESPN

#6 – Nationals – LHP Ross Detwiler – MILB, ESPN

#7 – Brewers – 1B Matt LaPorta – MILB, ESPN

#8 – Rockies – RHP Casey Weathers – MILB

#9 – Diamondbacks – RHP Jarrod Parker – MILB, ESPN

#10 – Giants – LHP Madison Bumgarner – MILB, ESPN

#11 – Mariners – RHP Phillipe Aumont – MILB, ESPN

#12 – Marlins – 3B Matt Dominguez – MILB, ESPN

#13 – Indians – 3B Beau Mills – MILB

#14 – Braves – OF Jason Heyward – MILB, ESPN

#15 – Reds – C Devin Mesoraco – MILB, ESPN

#16 – Blue Jays – 3B Kevin Ahrens – MILB

#17 – Rangers – RHP Blake Beavan – MILB

#18 – Cardinals – SS Peter Kozma – MILB, ESPN

#19 – Phillies – LHP Joe Savory – MILB, ESPN

#20 – Dodgers – RHP Christopher Withrow – MILB, ESPN

#21 – Blue Jays – C JP Arencibia – MILB

#22 – Giants – RHP Tim Alderson – MILB, ESPN

#23 – Padres – LHP Nicholas Schmidt – MILB, ESPN

#24 – Rangers – RHP Michael Main – MILB, ESPN

#25 – White Sox – LHP Aaron Poreda – MILB

#26 – Athletics – RHP James Simmons – MILB, ESPN

#27 – Tigers – RHP Rick Porcello – MILB, ESPN

#28 – Twins – CF Ben Revere – MILB

#29 – Giants – Wendell Fairly – (no scouting reports)

#30 – Yankees – Andrew Brackman – MILB, ESPN

[AZ 1:00pm ] Sweetness. Bring it on ESPN. Draft coverage begins!!! Steve Phillips is hosting. . . really? ugh. At least Gammons is there.

[AZ 1:10pm] DRays on the clock — and we’re off!!!

[AZ 1:14] Why do the DRays need the full five minutes to make their pick? Anyone?

[AZ 1:15] David Price – #1 pick.

[AZ 1:23] Royals pick Moustakas #2. Cubbies up next.

[AZ 1:25] Previous Cub top draft picks Kerry Wood and Mark Prior — way to jinx the next pick ESPN.

[AZ 1:31] Cubs draft Vitters. Odds on him being converted to a pitcher and needing Tommy John? #18 seems a long way off. . .

[AZ 1:32] Daniel Moskos to the Pirates #4. That’s considerably higher than I would have expected Moskos to go. I’d have picked Detweiler of Moskos.

[AZ 1:38] Orioles take Weiters. Solid pick by the Orioles. I’m always a fan of good hitters that have a good chance of sticking at premium defensive positions. Nationals are up next.

[AZ 1:42] Nice pickup by the Nationals. I think the Pirates missed out on this one.

[AZ 1:48] Brewers select Matt LaPorta. Prince Fielder will likely slide over to SS to make room.

[AZ 1:54] Can you imagine Fielder at SS? The Rockies pick Casey Weathers. I not a huge fan of picking relievers early, but this makes sense for the Rockies. He throws hard with some sinking pitches and Fuentes could be leaving at the trade deadline.

[AZ 1:59] Diamondbacks pick Parker. First HS pitcher selected in the draft.

[AZ 2:04] Bumgarner. . . la de da. Waiting for the Cardinals to pick.

[AZ 2:10] Mariners pick Aumont. I’ll be interested to see what the guys at USSmariner say about that tomorrow.

[AZ 2:17] Dominguez gone. . .Ahrens is still on the board as a nice infield prospect.

[AZ 2:22] Mills is listed as a 3B but he’s likely a DH in the making. I really dislike picking defensively challenged hitters. Have I mentioned that before?

[AZ 2:27] Braves draft a georgia native. . .surprised? I’m not. Huge power potential for Heyward. . .probably a corner outfielder.

[AZ 2:33] Devin Mesaraco — I’m caught off guard by that. Ahrens and Main still on the board.

[AZ 2:35] No seriously. Prince Fielder future SS. He’s got better intagibles than Jeter. He may even be in Jeter’s defensive class. ZING! The Mesoraco pick isn’t high, I just wasn’t expecting it from the Reds.

[AZ 2:38] Damn you Blue Jays.

[AZ 2:40] Arrieta is still on the board — please no, please no, please no

[AZ 2:42] There are some good arms out there: Porcello and Main (I’m not a harvey fan but he’s there too).

[AZ 2:45] here we go cardinals here we go.

[AZ 2:47] ugh. . .i’ll get back to you on this pick.

[erik 2:49] seems like a bit of a reach to me. solid, not spectacular. i would’ve rather had main or another pitcher. not happening w/luhnow. darn.

[AZ 2:54] erik’s nicer than I am. I really dislike this pick. There are far better players on the board. I don’t care if he’s a middle infielder he wasn’t a #18 pick. blech.

[AZ 2:59] Ok – well we still have 3 picks in the 1st/2nd round left. Maybe we’ll get some higher upside player at 36.

[AZ 3:01] From BP chat Bryan Smith:

BSmith (12:59:59 PM PST): Interesting pick by the Cardinals, who take the draft’s first shortstop in Peter Kozma. It’s a bit of an overdraft relative to most draft boards, but Kozma has a little less risk than your average prep shortstop. What comes with that, however, is less of an upside than other prep shortstops in the draft like Justin Jackson, Will Middlebrooks, and to me, Drew Cumberland.

Maybe he’ll move through the system fast but I think the consensus is that he was a little overdrafted. Still he’s a Cardinal now so it’s time to welcome him to the Cardinal Family!

[AZ 3:07] Still mourning the pass on Porcello. When you’re the Cardinals the ‘signability’ issue shouldn’t play a role in your first round pick. Sorry but it shouldn’t.

[AZ 3:14] I’m really hopeful they get the #36 pick in before 5pm. It’s gonna be close call though. I kinda feel bad for Kozma. He’s got really limited upside on a year when the Cardinals had a chance at much better players. I’m not sure it’s gonna be easy to embrace him as a player for a couple years. . .when I can forget about who we passed on. Padres got fooled into picking a safe college pitcher — is there some collusion going on against Porcello?

[AZ 3:18] I’m not really a Boras detractor but if I’m Porcello, I got to wonder if Boras hasn’t serious hurt my draft money and slot.

[AZ 3:20] Nice pick by the Rangers. (Would have been an acceptable pick by the Cardinals at 18).

[AZ 3:26] I’m thinking about the Kozma pick and I think his upside is someone like Marcus Giles but playing SS. Giles doesn’t excel anywhere but he’s good for a .280/.350/.450 line with good defense. Again, this isn’t what I was hoping for from a #1 pick but I think that’s what we got. Marcus Giles type players can be underrated but I think the opposite happened here.

[AZ 3:36] They snagged Andrew Miller at #6 last year and now they get Porcello. A fantastic pick by the Tigers. Kudos to them for stepping up to the plate and being prepared to pay the money that a top talent is going to want.

[AZ 3:43] Twins pick a tiny CF with no power. Yuck. I’m glad we didn’t make that pick. I’m totally unconvinced that he’ll be able to hit for average or power or even get on base. He does have great speed and baserunning skills. Steve Phillips is talking about manufacturing runs with Revere. Phillips was a GM. No, don’t laugh, it’s true. This is a worse pick than Kozma imo.

[AZ 3:45] Baseball America had Revere as the 135th best prospect. WOWzer that looks like a bad pick.

[AZ 3:50] BA lists Fairley as the best HS athlete. He was a multiple sport athlete and ESPN is loving this pick. Comparisons to Carl Crawford are flying left and right. Steve Phillips literally just repeated what Gammons said word for word as if it was his own thought. Classic!

[AZ 3:54] Love the Brackman pick. Good point by some guy on ESPN – “If this was in Februrary, Brackman would be at the top half of this first round”. He may need TJ surgery in the near future but I still think this is a great upside pick.

[AZ 4:10] Players the Cardinals should target at #36 – Matt Harvey, Josh Smoker, Jack McGeary

[AZ 4:45] Sorry stepped away for a bit. Back for a few more minutes of draft talk.

[AZ 4:53] From the BP chat again. Bryan Smith succintly sums up my frustration with the Kozma pick:

BSmith (2:52:08 PM PST): Earlier I wondered why the Cardinals took Peter Kozma ahead of Justin Jackson and Drew Cumberland … now, the two go back-to-back in sandwich round.

[erik 5:28] the Clay Mortensen pick has me scratching my head. sounds like he has nominal to decent stuff, but was projected more as a 4th rounder. He posted a 3.92 ERA in an extreme pitchers park. There was so much more to choose from, like say Mitch Canham, Brett Cecil, Nathan Vineyard, Corey Brown, Matt Mangini. It’s dreadful, or at least that’s how I see it now.

[erik 5:39] just when I got done groaning over Mortensen, they do it again and pick David Kopp. This guy’s ceiling looks to be 4th starter. He’s allowed more hits then innings pitched and has a K/9 rate of 6.88. That’s just not worth a 2nd round pick. What the heck is Luhnow doing? I’m officially angry, to put it very mildly.

[erik 5:46] Another college pitcher. Jess Todd. I don’t know, I’m tempted to be pretty harsh with criticism right now. I’ll wait til I can get home and examine these guys more, but color me dismayed right now. What a let down this day has been.

[erik 6:27] Cardinals pick in the 3rd round David Descalso, an infielder from UC Davis. I haven’t heard of him until now. His line this year were .397/.474/.569. Adjusted for park and schedule, his OPS comes out to be 1.248, for what it’s worth. Matt Harvey was still (!) on the board, yet they passed. I’m not sure what to make of this, he plays third, has shown little to no power. I want to give the benefit of the doubt, but I’m pretty exasperated at this point.

[erik] still trapped at work, but going home now. Kyle Russell. YES! Love the pick. Love it, love it. love it. Best news I’ve had all day.

Draft Day 2007 is Here!

Click here or see below for last night’s daily prospect report. Not a great night for Mr. Rasmus.

Azruavatar will be running the show today as you know by now. I’ll be at work, but when I’m able I’ll probably chime in with some thoughts. I’m totally geeked up about today, I can’t wait to see who the Cardinals pick. Derrick Goold had an interesting article this morning at the P-D where he shares about the little system called STOUT that the Cardinals use to evaluate talent.

“Version 2.0,” Luhnow said. It’s a blend of scouting and statistics that Luhnow and his staff have taken to calling The STOUT System. That’s a nickname conjured by senior quantitative analyst Sig Medjal. The “ST” is for stat and “OUT” is from scout.
“It’s a very thoughtful combination of the stats and the scout’s opinion coming together,” Luhnow said. “The STOUT System includes makeup assessment, physical projection, hustle, athleticism. It takes all of that. Mechanics. Scout’s opinion on future defensive positions. The type of defender that player will be at the various positions. Base-running skills.”

I’m sure many of you have read Sam Walker’s book Fantasyland, sounds like ZOLODEX and Nando’s Hunchmaster had a baby and named it STOUT. I wonder if the Cardinals are taking the player’s horoscope into account? (Sig is Walker’s “stat guy” in the book, as many of you may remember.) Goold also mentions some names the Cardinals are looking at.

The program also helps to equalize statistics from all levels of draft-eligible competition. One of the players on the Cardinals’ radar is Beau Mills, among several highly touted third base prospects. He hit an NAIA record 38 home runs and batted .458 for Lewis-Clark State, in Idaho. But the competition level leads to questions about how his numbers compare to, say, a third baseman who played in the Southeastern Conference.

The Cardinals have a way to calculate that. But it’s not just numbers. The same day the general managers from San Francisco and San Diego saw Mills play, Luhnow was there. He recalls the ferocity with which ground balls were chopped at Mills and that Lewis-Clark players’ box in the offseason. Toughness becomes a plus.

I have to say, I’d be pretty thrilled with Mills if he’s on the board at #18. The article also mentions the Cardinals would be interested in Wieters should he plummet due to $ reasons and Brackman, who despite not having an impressive college record and has had injury issues could still be of interest because of his projectability.

The thing I notice about all these names is they are college players. The article states that with the number of good prep pitchers the Cards still could take one. For precedent, they did take Tyler Herron in the first round in ’05, albeit it was in the supplemental round.

lboros has the links to where all the action will be found. And here’s a link to MLB.com’s draft tracker. Is it 1, yet?

Quick update:

Jon Mayo has his final mock at MLB.com, and I like this one

St. Louis Cardinals: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (TX)
Long considered to be going to the Reds at No. 15, it now seems like Ahrens will be available here. The Cardinals seem not to be a college-only team right now and might want to show that by taking the high school bat in this spot. He plays shortstop in high school and isn’t bad there, but the consensus is that he should move to third where he should profile better both offensively and defensively.

Interestingly, he has Porcello falling from #2 all the way to #30 with the Yankees, who are likely the only team to open up their wallets and pay his insane demands.

Jim Callis has his 11th hour mock, one I’m not crazy about:

18. Cardinals. St. Louis has kept its intentions closer to the vest than any club. The Cardinals like college players with a strong track record of performance, and they haven’t shied away from Boras clients in the past. That makes Wieters an obvious choice if he gets this far, and Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta fits the profile if Wieters isn’t around. Porcello is another Boras client who would be a steal this low, but it’s uncertain the Cardinals would shell out big money for a high school pitcher. Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) third baseman/first baseman Beau Mills has some advantages over LaPorta: He hits lefthanded, has a chance to play third base and may not cost as much. St. Louis also has looked at college arms such as UC Riverside righthander James Simmons, Cal State Fullerton righty Wes Roemer, San Francisco lefty Aaron Poreda and Hagadone.

Projected Pick: Matt LaPorta, 1b, Florida.

I’m getting tired of hearing LaPorta tied to the Cardinals. Unless he can play something outside of first, I don’t get it.

This guy is a moron.

Daily Prospect Report 6/6/07

Be sure to drop by around 12:30 as I’ll have the draft post being updated as each pick occurs with links and maybe some gut reaction. I’m a little concerned about how it’s going to go, but we’ll just have to wait and see. No 11th hour speculations from me. Let’s catch up on those already in the system.

Quad Cities and Memphis are both off tonight.

Springfield 6, Tulsa 8

• Sean Danielson goes 3-for-5 with a double.
• Golden Sombrero tonight for Rasmus. He went 1-for-5 with 4 Ks.
• Joe Mather’s got the hot bat again going 2-for-4 with a longball.
• Mark Shorey also went deep.
• Cory Rauschenberger was rotten allowing 7 runs (5 earned) in 4IP.
• The bullpen put up 5 scoreless (but not dominant innings) in a “too late” effort.

Palm Beach 3, Tampa 8

• I must have really upset Mark Hamilton when I compared him to Mike Ferris because he’s gone OFF since then. 2-for-4 with a double and a HR tonight. Prove me wrong Mark, prove me wrong.
• Nathan Southard went 0-for-2 but drew 2 walks.
• Brandon Yarbrough went 2-for-4.
• Trey Hearne got rocked allowing 10 hits in 6IP. 6 earned runs on 1BB and 3 K. Trey needs to try something different cause this ain’t working.

See everybody tomorrow!!!