Short Changed

With the impending departure of David Eckstein, the Cardinals are caught in something of an awkward position.  Eckstein is getting old and has always been a marginally above average offensive player.  If his bat speed slips or the injuries catch up, how much longer does he retain his usefulness?  Compounding the problem is the lack of free agents capable of fielding the position.  Eckstein is obviously the best FA available but he’s going to require a multiyear commitment and he’s simply not a good bet to maintain his value going forward.  PECOTA projects him as worth less than a win offensively each year after 2007.  UZR likes his defense as above average but not significantly so.  Simply put, committing to David Eckstein being worth more than perhaps a win total each year moving forward is a bad bet. 

Brendan Ryan has seen some time with the big league club but I remain unconvinced in his ability to be a major league regular.  His minor league stats show a player that can hit for average but doesn’t walk enough or hit for power.  I think Ryan would make an excellent backup middle infiedler where his plus defense could be utilized in late innings and as the occasional pinch hitter where a base hit is more important than a walk.  Perhaps he develops as more than that but its not a projection that I’d endorse.

So, what’s a Cardinal GM to do? 

Make a trade of course.  And I’ve got a dandy for you.  Bill Stoneman is a packrat and refuses to trade away the often-mentioned Angel prospects even past their expiration date.  I have to assume that multiple big league teams have put out feelers regarding Erick Aybar but to no avail.  Frankly, I’m not that big of an Aybar fan.  I’ve got someone better in mind.  Imagine a player that has a better (or at least more highly regarded) prospect hot on his heels and is being blocked by another relatively young player (at least with regards to service time).  This players team has seemed to sour on him due to an inability to transition to the majors thus far.  That sounds like someone ripe for the plucking, no?

If you haven’t guessed by now, I’m speaking of Ben Zobrist.  He’s 26 and is currently in a utility role for Tampa Bay.  Now, let’s preface this discussion with the fact that Tampa Bay’s new management, namely Andrew Freidman, is smart.  If you want Zobrist,  you’ll have to give up something of value — but well get to that later.  Show me the stats!

Year	Level	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISOP	wOBA
2005	A	15.2	11.3	0.304	0.415	0.413	0.109	0.369
2005	A+	20.6	9.4	0.333	0.475	0.496	0.163	0.429
2006	AA	14.6	12.2	0.327	0.424	0.473	0.146	0.393
2006	AAA	12.3	11.1	0.304	0.395	0.377	0.073	0.352
2007	AAA	15.6	13.8	0.279	0.4	0.455	0.176	0.378

Zobrist has excellent contact rates (note he had more walks than strikeouts in over 250 plate appearnces at AAA this season) which allows for him to hit for average.  Additionally, he maintains very good walk rates which puts his OBP through the stratosphere.  Even assuming both of those skillsets take a hit moving up to the big leagues, I think he’s capable of posting an OBP around .380 in the majors which is fantastic for a SS.  He’s an ideal two-spot hitter who isn’t going to hit many HRs but will be on base and lace a few doubles from time to time.  His linedrive rates have declined somewhat this year but that could be a sample size blip — to soon to tell.  He’s benefited from some above-league-average BABIPs but not overly much.  Again, his skillset is one that even if there is an element of luck in some of these performances, he could see his numbers decline and still be above average.

Defensively, it’s hard to get a read on him.  He’s probably not going to be mistaken as an above average defensive SS but without any defensive metrics, it’s hard to tell.  UZR and RZR haven’t liked his work in the majors defensively but the sample size issues render that information unreliable.  BP’s component based defensive metrics like his work in the minors but their defensive statistcs are questionable at best. I think he’s probably a below average defender which could be problematic for the Cardinals groundball oriented pitching staff.

Year	Level	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISOP	wOBA
2006	MLB	5.1	13.3	0.224	0.258	0.311	0.087	0.247
2007	MLB	0	21.1	0.174	0.169	0.232	0.058	0.172

His major league stats are completely out of whack with what we saw in the minors.  He hasn’t been able to translate the high walk rate into an acceptable batting line in the majors.  He could be getting fooled by major league pitches that are harder to guess at but I suspect that he just never got into his groove.  He totaled around 200 PA in 2006 and about 60 this year so there’s more reason to believe his stats from the high minors than these perhaps.  These numbers should temper our expectations but should we ignore the minor league lines?  I don’t think so and I think there’s an excellent opportunity to capture a player that’s something of a diamond in the rough.

It’s always difficult to anticipate what the market is for players and the Devil Rays have held on to prospects despite them not working out as well as initially planned (Gomes, Baldelli).  The upside for Zobrist is there but Brignac is still seen as the SS of the future in Tampa to pair with 3B Evan Longoria whom they just promoted to AAA.  I’d make a run for him though.  I’d see if I could get Tampa to bite on some of our better relief prospects forming a package around Tyler Johnson and Jason Motte and tossing in perhaps another player at a lower level.  Tampa is desperate to grab onto major league ready relievers and Zobrist seems extraneous to a team that has another option now and a better option a year or two off.  The exchange of cost-controlled players should be palatable to Tampa because they certainly won’t want anyone already in arbitration or heading to free agency.  The names may not be right but the scenario is plausible to me.  Hopefully, I’ll be reading it in the papers before 2008.

(Stats from the always handy firstinning.com)