I’m a little pressed for time today, but I about fell out of my chair when I read the Cardinals may be interested in Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. Mozeliak may be serious about overtaking the Cubs, and why wouldn’t he? The NL has been surprisingly soft this year, and as good as the Cardinals have been, it’s hard to envision them continuing to do as well as they have considering the career performances they are coaxing out of their players. But would the cost be worth it? I would think the price would have to start with Rasmus, Garcia and a few other lesser prospects. A package similar to what the Tigers sent to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis immediately comes to mind.
I’m not advocating the deal, nor am I just dismissing it. At first blush, I’m not crazy about the idea at all, however. What do you all think?
Future Redbirds 
I think any trade the would require Rasmus and Garcia, right now I’m against. I do realize you have to give up talent to get talent, but the only way I think I would throw either one of them in there is if we had a window to work out an extention with Holliday and a deal was reached.
Fuentes yes, Holliday no. A career 790 OPS outside of Coors… Why pay the farm for a year and a half of Skip Schumaker’s production this year?
I would be fine with going after Holliday but not if we give up Rasmus. I honestly don’t know if I would give up Garcia simply because he is left handed and we seriously lack LH pitching in our system. I would give up Anderson, Boggs, Mort, Parisi, Walters (not all but a group of them) to get Holliday. I also think we need to put Ludwick’s and Shumaker’s names into trade talks. They are cheap young OFs who are very productive. The Cards seems really committed to Ankiel and Rasmus moving forward. If we acquire an OF I have a feeling we will see one of our major league OFs going the other way.
To me it would depend on if the Cards think they could actually keep Holliday. . .you know, get him to St. Louis, let him fall in love with the city and the fans (like McGwire, Edmonds and Rolen before him), and give the Cards some sort of discount. However, Boras clients typically NEVER sign early and always test the market. For that reason alone I don’t think the Cardinals will land someone like Matt Holliday.
For the purpose of discussion, I think the package heading to Colorado would be headlined by Rasmus, Garcia, and B. Anderson or C. Perez as the primary assets. . .with Colorado possibly pursuing secondary assets like J. Todd or D. Jones.
As appealing (and lethal) as a Pujols-Holliday middle-of-the-order is, the cost (in players and real dollars) is just too high. If he’s going on the market anyway, and StL wants him, keep the assets and make a run at him during free agency. Regarding Fuentes, I wouldn’t be opposed at dangling B. Anderson for him. . .but his inconsistency and tendency to slump concerns me.
I dont think they could afford to re-sign Holliday…but I would trade anyone in the system (except Rasmus) for those 2 players.
I might be a total blind homer…but I think Rasmus can be a better, more valuable player over the next 5 to 7 years then Holliday can.
Especially when you look at the Home/Road splits and the cost/position that Rasmus plays
That 2 to 3 years of production for a combined 1M to 2M is going to be huge for this franchise.
You cant trade it.
I am not a big fan of Fuentes – I just don’t trust him in high leverage situations. He definitely has the stuff to get it done, but he also has a tendency to implode. At best he is a situational lefty and I’d hate to give up one of our top prospects for that (Rasmus, Anderson, Garcia, Todd, Perez being our top prospects in my book).
As for Holliday, I’d like to echo Swirls’ sentiments about his Home/Road splits. I wrote a post for the Watching the Game blog [click my name for a link to the post – more self-promotion, I know] that talked about how he sees more fastballs than any other hitter in the league, mainly because of the concept that breaking balls aren’t as effective at altitude. That’s my theory, at least, but the fact remains that he is not an MVP type of player outside of Denver.
The bigger issue for me is that Holliday does not represent a fix for a problem that Cardinals have at the major league level. Sure, more offense would be great, but we are pretty solid in outfield and a bigger issue is the middle infield. Fuentes would be helpful to fill the lefthanded hole in the bullpen (unless they think Mulder is a long-term answer), but Holliday doesn’t fix what ails ’em.
Also, I really think the team needs to stick to the plan and build from within. They can’t scrap the foundation for years of success for a chance in the short-run. If Holliday and Fuentes were the pieces that would make us the no-brainer odds-on favorite to win the NL, then maybe.
I don’t think it would cost near that much to get Holiday. I’ve both read and heard that they would let him go for 1 upper level prospect and one mid level prospect or a couple of major league ready guys. If thats the case, Bryan Anderson should be the centerpiece of our offer. Throw in Anthony Reyes, who many teams still have some interest in, maybe even a Joe Mather type and I’d do it in a heart beat.
I don’t think you give up Rasmus. His dramatic improvement at AAA just shows he will play well at the next level.
I would trade about anyone else for those two players. With Boggs, Garcia, Mortenson, and Todd, not to mention McClellan, you have good SP depth. Long term we think Wainwright is a lock for the rotation. Hopefully Carpenter. There just won’t be enough room in the rotation and the bullpen is relatively easy to fill in free agency. I would be willing to part with a couple of those guys, plus Anderson to make that deal happen. It would be a no brainer to me if we gave up Anderson/SP/and a current OF or Mather.
Imagine a Rasmus/Pujols/Holliday line-up for next year. Add Ankiel and Glaus and it is very potent. We are freeing up a lot of money in the next couple of years(Mulder, Glaus, etc.) that would allow you to possibly sign Holliday to a long term deal.
I would rather trade for a bat than for a SP(Sabathia). There is too much of an injury threat with those guys. I know we have had a little bad luck, but pitcher are injury prone. Too much risk to pay big money and give up major prospects.
Oh, and as for the hypothetical of what it would cost:
I’d say Colorado would be crazy to turn down Rasmus, Garcia or Todd, Anderson and Jones for Holliday/Fuentes.
If we bargain hard we might get it done for Rasmus, Anderson, Reyes and Jones.
If we could get it done for Mather, Anderson, Reyes and Jones I think I would go for it.
I know this isn’t the main discussion, but does anyone think the part about Holliday is actually true? If the Cards are looking to win now, wouldn’t they look for an impact SS or 2B?
Are there any impact SS or 2B who may be on the market?
Holliday and Fuentes are very different beasts from the standpoint of considering possible trades. Holliday would be moving into a place where we already have a surplus of serviceable talent; he would merely upgrade it from “serviceable” to “excellent.” Fuentes, by contrast, fills an actual void, if a lower-leverage one. This means the chits available to trade for them are quite different as well.
I would be VERY unhappy trading ANY minor-league talent to get Holliday, except as a throw-in. If the deal can’t be done in a way that reduces, rather than worsens, the glut of outfielders, don’t do it, and Raz transcends that glut. Maybe Mather, Stavinoha, Jones, etc., could be added to a deal that trades on current major-leaguers (wouldn’t Duncan look good in a Rockies uniform?…), but that’s all.
For Fuentes, OTOH, a prospect deal would make sense — as long as it’s not a *top* prospect. He’s certainly not worth Raz, and I wouldn’t trade Garcia or Todd to get him either. Anderson, maybe, if there was a pot-sweetener coming back in from Denver, and most of the rest of the system could be tapped. I’d almost think that a Fuentes/Mortensen deal straight up might work, and be beneficial for both teams.
Ok, just to follow up on a point made I made earlier and that Bill recently made more eloquently than I did – Holliday isn’t really a necessary upgrade for the Cardinals playoff hopes. I just plugged the Cardinals lineup into Baseball Musings’ lineup analyzer and with Ludwick in the lineup we score 5.361 runs per game and with Holliday in the lineup in place of Ludwick we score 5.395 runs per game. It really isn’t that much of a difference. I suppose you could switch out Schumaker or Ankiel instead of Ludwick and the difference will be bigger (but then who plays CF or leads off?), but I still don’t believe that it would be worth the cost that we are talking about in talent.
I wouldn’t trade Skip Schumaker straight-up for an outfielder with a sub-.800 career OPS on the road. That’s Matt Holliday. Trade for a Big Name and you will invariably overpay. Did we learn *nothing* at all from the Mulder disaster?
Everyone understood years ago that Dante Bichette was a product of Coors Field. Why are so many people blind to the same affect Colorado is having on Holliday’s highly-overrated career? Matt H. is about to become the most overpaid player in the majors this side of Barry Zito. No thank you.
Fuentes will probably cost 50% more in trade talent than a less-publicized but just as effective LHP like Downs or Tallet of Toronto. Let’s look north of the border for our bullpen upgrade.
As others have mentioned, the place to make a dramatic improvement is up-the-middle. A blockbuster deal for Ian Kinsler is at the top of my wish list. (I’ve got a birthday coming up soon, Mr. Mozeliak!) I’d offer Garcia, Anderson, Duncan and Schumaker for Kinsler. Maybe toss in Additon or Jon Jay. Could get it done.
No way I trade Bryan Anderson for anyone. One more bad collision and Yadi could be toast.
I’d be willing to give up Skip and Stavinoha for Holliday, and Reyes and Parisi for Fuentes. Nothing more than that.
There is no way Colorado takes a package of Anderson, Mather, Reyes, and Jones for Holliday and Fuentes. Colorado would be crazy to take that deal as just letting Holliday play the rest of the season nets them 2 1st round picks, most likely resulting in players better than Reyes and Jones.
In order to get both of those players they would have to trade Rasmus, plain and simple. Colorado would be crazy to do anything less. Most likely it would take Rasmus, Garcia/Mortenson/Todd, Anderson, lower level prospect like the Hoff/Jones/Gregerson.
I simply would not do it. The Cards are going to need as much money as possible for when Pujols is a free agent so committing 18-20 million to Holliday is too big a risk. I would much rather see the Cards turn Reyes and a Parisi into a lefty specialist and turn a package of Anderson, Mather and any starting pitcher in system not named Garcia (can’t trade a lefty starter) for a solid to really good 2B or SS maybe Brian Roberts or even someone like Peralta.
The idea that we must upgrade where we are weakest fails to see the possibility that no impact talent is available at those positions or that an upgade in the outfield may cover some of the lack of production from our MI.
The question to me is whether it is an upgrade. With all do respect to Baseball Musings run calculator, we have half a season of Ludwick’s production upon which they are basing their numbers. Can we count on Ludwick being consistent? What about Schumaker? His L/R splits are astounding. Can he keep up the fantastic production against RH that make him a bearable player against LH? Can Ankiel avoid striking out 200 times?
I know Holliday has some bad career home v. away splits. However, this season they are better. And he does play a larger number of his games at Petco and Dodger stadium where his numbers are fairly poor. He has hit well at new Busch. I think he is an upgrade.
I guess I am more Jocketty than Mo since I would rather have a proven player. I do not think we give up Rasmus for him. Too cheap and under our control for too long. As for the pitchers, I do not see a need in the rotation for Boggs, Garcia, Mortenson, Todd, and McClellan. If we could give up Anderson, a current OF or Mather, and one of the pitchers for him, then I say it is a deal. Add another mid-level prospect and I say take Fuentes as well.
Everyone is too gun shy due to the Mulder swap. Remember we got Big Mac for a song and Edmonds for Bottenfield and Kennedy. We always hear stories about deals that got made that gave a team a prospect that tuned into a star. However, we never hear about the deals that didn’t get made because a team said they weren’t willing to trade a prospect who then fizzled or never made it. Think of some names of recent past on the Cardinal system that have fizzled like Reyes. What could he have fetched if we had kept him. There was not as much deptchthen as there is now and so I would be willing to dump prospects for proven All-Stars.
I don’t want to lose Rasmus or Garcia. If you trade those guys, you better effin win it all because you are getting rid of two of the only legit prospects in the system. I don’t trade Rasmus for anyone with much service time. I would trade him for Longoria, Bruce, maybe a few others (or a package of great prospects). His value is too great if he can become an everyday CF who contributes at a discount for a long time.
I say stand pat and make a run for Holliday as a free agent if they are still interested then.
I can’t believe someone said they wouldn’t trade Skip Schumaker for him, though. If they offered Holliday for Skip straight up, I would jump all over it. Skip’s numbers are coming in a very small sample size – and mostly against right handers. Holliday is an everyday player.
travis, we don’t need an impact talent to upgrade at 2B, we just need something above replacement level. How about 3 months of GrudK? He’s managed to keep his wheels on this season despite being 38 and would probably be a bit better than the Miles/Kennedy poo-poo platter. Can’t imagine that the Royals would ask for that much for him either.
Much too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions, but these 3-year Busch splits for Holliday did get my attention:
29 AB, 14H, 5HR – .483 / .545 / 1.138 / 1.683
That said, I wouldn’t make the trade if it included Rasmus or Todd. Anyone else and I could be supportive. It’s tough to give up a LH SP of Garcia’s quality, but his injury history makes me worry about his bust potential. Molina’s youth makes Anderson expendable and Perez’ wildness makes me nervous that he’ll end up in Turnbow territory.
Cards 2B’s are hitting over .300 as a group with a respectable .350+ OB%
2B really isnt a prob…SS is.
No! No! A thousand times, no!
For the love of all that is good and holy in this world, NO!
I would submit that both SS and 2B are a problem and we should seek to upgrade either one given the opportunity. VORPS so far this year are:
Miles 7.7
Ryan 1.0
Izturis -0.4
Kennedy -0.8
Miles had VORPS of 2.7, 1.4, and -2.5 this year, and his BABIP has jumped about 40 points to .354, so I think it’s safe to say that he’s been a bit lucky this year. Grudk, on the other hand, has a VORP this year of 12.1, and has totals of 18.1, 18.2, and 16.0 the last 3 seasons. His BABIP is also in line with his historical averages. GrudK has also been very solid the last 3 years in the field according to RZR. I’m not saying he’s anything great but he’s probably a 1-win improvement, which is a win that might come in very handy this year.
That should be, “Miles had VORPS of 2.7, 1.4, and -2.5 the last 3 seasons.”
If i had the time or the resources to figure it out, i’d like to see the splits for holliday when he goes up against NL central pitching, more specifically the actual pitchers we face.
Is this a silly idea?
I too would love to upgrade 2B..but with the production of Miles, the contract of Kennedy and the energy and speed of Ryan….I dont think there is much room to go and get a bigger bat.
2B really isnt a problem, defense has been above avg. We have gotten at worst MLB avg production all around each game from our starting 2B.
SS is the real problem as is the prolonged slumps that seeming at least 1 OF, not named Skip, is going thru at one time or another.
Ankiel has struggled for extended periods, Duncan is obvious and Ludwich is really scuffling.
I pretty much think outside of a LH reliever and some players being called up..this is our team for the rest of the year.
Just have to play better.
Instead of focusing on positions, focus on lineup. Yes the Cards need help up the middle but they also need a true clean up hitter. Holliday fits this. They also obviously need a lefty in the pen. Fuentes fits this. So a trade would be good. However, I agree that we can’t give up Pujols, Wainwright, Rasmus, Todd, Molina. Everyone else is tradable. If we can trade a big league outfielder and a big league reliever and hold onto a few more prospects (Garcia) that’s bonus.
I wouldn’t include Rasmus, Perez, or Garcia in any trade for at least a couple of years.
Fuentes is probably more important to us right now but I think Mo can surely work out a package of players that doesn’t include any of those three.
I don’t know if it was mentioned here but it looks like Colby was added to the Future Games roster.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/allstargames.jsp?mc=_us_08&sid=milb
Was I the last to know that Rasmus was added to the Futures Game?
I am always the last to know everything…..next someone will tell me Justin Timberlake and Britney broke up.
God, I hope not!
I agree with what most people have said in that upgrading the left side of our bullpen or MI will likely be much cheaper and ultimately lead to similiar results if we traded for Holiday.
I think Grudz and Fuentes are two guys that would be decent trade targets. But the market for relievers during midseaon is demanding, look at which the Red Sox gave up for Gagne, the Brewers for Linebrink, and Braves for Dotel. All 3 teams gave up some really good prospects.
I think the best thing the Cardinals could do for the future is sit tight. Most people didn’t really expect much from them this season, but they look like a 84-86 win ballclub with a bright future. They may or may not make the playoffs this year, but I much rather miss them this year than give up the guys who could lead them to 4-5 appearances in the future.
As has been mentioned here in other discussions, why not just let Garcia fill our role of LOOGY rather than paying a boatload for Fuentes? That way we could monitor his innings as well.
Ever since we got Kile and Miles, I love the players we have gotten from the Rocks.
Garcia really struggles vs LHP and I dont know if you want your #1 pitching prospect who has already battled arm issues to be pitching as much as TLR loves to use LHP’s, anyway.
If you bring Garcia up…you bring him up to start.
Pickle-
I don’t think we have to worry about that. Those two will be together forever, just like Burt and Lonnie…
If we deal Rasmus our early season success will beome our long term undoing. Our team went into this season with a plan to go young. With our team being better than we thought it was this year… our future looks pretty bright. But, if we mortgage our future for instant gratification we may succumb to our worst fears. If our team does not have a good future when Albert becomes a free agent he will bolt. I think with our farm system and our current squad we are poised to be a contender in the NL for years to come. I don’t see the point in giving that uo for the possibility of making the playoffs this year.
It would take AT LEAST Garcia, Anderson, and a couple other prospects like Perez, Todd, Mortensen. I would absolutely not do it if Colby Rasmus had to be involved; that would be nuts. Holliday’s home/road splits are way too drastic; although, he’d still be a nice addition in the lineup to hit behind Pujols.
I’m not high on Fuentes. He has very solid stuff and he’s a lefty, but he’s too inconsistent and has shown he can’t be fully trusted in pressure situations.
No way. Holliday makes over $20M between now and when he’s a free agent at the end of the year. So, let’s say he’s worth $25M over replacement over a year and a half (a tenuous proposition outside of Coors — and that also assumes we don’t have more than 2 replacement level OFers which isn’t true) then what you are trading six cost-controlled years of Rasmus for is $5M on the high end.
Garcia can be just as good as Fuentes right now. He hasn’t posted an xFIP under 4.00 since 2005. His ERA isn’t all that surprising and Garcia could at the very least do that (park-adjusted) out of the pen.
The upshot is that Fuentes gets you two picks after this year. That’s definitely got some real value, but it’s no secret. Add it into the price in prospects.
Pass on both. Easily.
Numbers are off on Holliday. It’s 18.25M for a year and a half.
I think everyone is underestimating Holliday. The guy can hit. That being said, I’m not trading Rasmus, Garcia, or Todd. I think you could pry Holliday away for Anderson, D. Jones and Reyes.
haltz — I’m not a fan of xFIP for relievers since they are much more capable of suppressing home run rates than starters are. Fuentes would make a good closer on most teams and he’s a valuable reliever. Other than that, I’m with you — I certainly don’t want Holiday and I probably would pay the asking price for Fuentes.
Just to remind everyone too, I doubt Anderson would interest the Rockies much since they have Iannetta already.
Aaron Luna is now expected to be signed…Per the always informative DGoold in his birdland.
Supposedly, Mr. Luna is repped by the same people who rep Wallace and Pujols
Looks as if Wallace got nearly 100K over slot with a reported 1.9M signing bonus
Does the Walrus give out loans?
Rasmus should be untouchable.Organization is commited to developing prospects for St.Louis, not others.It’s all you hear and read from management since Mozelik took over(in fact, that’s why he has the job).Lower-tier prospect could and should be moved if the playoffs are possible.But that will happen later rather than sooner.
Ugh, me either. I thought it should be regressed some, but I see now that I looked at Cincy’s HR/FB and not the Rockies. Not that it’s a great train of thought to begin with.
I know lots of people have fallen in love with the idea of Fuentes in the pen but what about a guy that will cost perceivably tons less in talent like an Alan Embree from the A’s?
I would rather just go after D.Marte from the Pirates. He has a 6M option for 09, that they wont pick up. They are out of contention, have LHP’s coming out of the woodowork and the are seemingly inept at getting anything back in value in trade.
Well at least they are when they trade with the Cubs…they did get Jack Wilson for broken down J.Christensen.
I think focusing on a less publicized left handed relief pitcher, e.g. Tallett, Downs or Carlson of Toronto is a better way to go for that need. Isn’t Fuentes a free agent also after this year?
Finally I think the Cardinals should be focused on finding a power hitting or lead off type second baseman. I would guess that Kinsler is untouchable and Roberts is difficult to obtain from the Oriole owner who loves him. I would suggest the Cardinals to focus on a minor league prospect like Cardenas of the Phillies or Lowrie of the Red Sox. I remember as a kid I was terribly dissapointed when the Cards traded Vineger Bend Mizell for a Pirates 2B and it wasn’ t Mazeroski. It turned out to be a prospect named Manuel Javier aka Julian Javier.
agree with the knights who say nicht. there is a reason fuentes isn’t closing for the rox (ineffective) and there is/are a reason they would give up holiday. i believe we should stay on track with letting the chips fall where they may this season and not go for patches, which i’m afraid holiboras would be (going to be unreasonably priced soon). fuentes is a little more desirable because we don’t have any good lhrp candidates in the minors and contrary to luhnow’s comments, we didn’t really draft any with short ml horizons. for fuentes, it is a matter of value and i would not give up any bright prospects for him i’d rather talk to pirates about their surplus of young lhp’s and them taking reyes.
You know, I’ve been thinking a lot lately, and this discussion really only reinforces my thought. With the Cardinals so utterly barren of lefthanded pitchers, especially of the relief variety, in the upper minors, how in the world did they pass up Cole St. Clair in the draft? Guy has ugly mechanics, but he didn’t get picked until the seventh round by the Dodgers.
As a college closer, he most likely would have flown through the system, and been in a position to fill a ‘pen spot probably by next year.
When I did my draft previews over at VEB earlier this year, I said I wanted nothing to do with St, Clair, but that was when I thought there was a chance he was going to go in the first two rounds. When he was still sitting there in the fifth, sixth rounds, I think the Cards should have moved to shore up a position of organisational weakness and picked him up. He’ll probably have a short career with that arm action, but you’re only really looking at the years he’s cost controlled as a lefty reliever anyway.
I think the Cards may have missed a chance on this one.
I’m surprised they didn’t glom onto Christian Friedrich for the same reason, the more so since his ceiling is generally considered higher and his risk lower. They would have had to use the first-round choice for him since he was gone by sandwich time, but still.
The best description I’ve read on Holliday (I believe it was at FJM, but am not certain) is that at Coors he hits like 1993 Frank Thomas. Away from Coors, he hits like 2006 Frank Thomas. A useful, productive player, no doubt, but not worth a cost controlled player who will probably put up close to equal numbers (Rasmus) with superior defense.
A package not including Colby… I’d be interested.
An occupational hazard of being interested in player development is falling too much in love with the prospects you are following and rooting for , and as a result overvaluing them. I am not eager to trade Rasmus and don’t necessarily advocate making him a chip in this potential trade. On the other hand, Rasmus is not a sure thing. He reminds me a lot more of Andy Van Slyke–perhaps a bit better, maybe a bit worse– than he does of Stan Musial. Another Van Slyke is a very valuable commodity to have, but not an invaluable, untradeable one. And despite the sneering from some quarters, Halliday and Fuentes would represent clear upgrades to what the Cardinals have now, Halliday as a dangerous bat behind Pujols, Fuentes as a strong lefthanded reliever capable of both setting up and closing. Just as important a question as who we would be willing to give up, one which no one here seems to be pursuing, is what would the Rockies be willing to take. Too much of the speculation here is purely Card-centric. It takes two teams to make a deal. Also, would we do better dealing with the Pirates, with Marte and Bay as comparable targets?
I mean Holliday, of course, not Halliday.
“It takes two teams to make a deal.” Right, Mike, but the Rookies are not so over-endowed with talent (and I say this as an occasional Rookies fan, although with about 2% of the passion I feel for the Cardinals) that they’d turn down a package that offered them more than they give away, regardless of what positions that package would play. This is the difference between trading to fill a niche — as we would — and trading to replenish a talent pool — as they would. This, by itself, is a compelling reason to be cautious in any trade with them: odds are they’ll only go for a deal that leaves us basically screwed.
If you are going to trade with Colorado, trade for a pitcher, not a position player. The pitcher is likely to be under-rated, where the position player is likely over-rated. Matt Holliday on the road is likely no better than Ankiel (without the arm and speed) or Ludwick. I think it would be a mistake to trade a bunch of prospects for Holliday, and a bigger mistake to sign him long term for a lot of money.