Grapefruit action 3/3/08

We still could use some more input on Hoffpauir’s community projection. Seems like it’s been a sleepy Monday.

Grapefruit action is running pretty dry. Not a lot of excitement from today:

• Cody Haerther ripped a double, off lefty Ray King, no less.
• Mitch Boggs got a little roughed up. He allowed 2 hits, including a solo shot against Elijah Dukes, and he walked 2.
• Nick Stavinoha, Brendan Ryan, and Colby Rasmus were all 0 for 1. Rasmus is just 1 for 7 so far this spring.

Yesterday was all about camp darling Kyle McClellan. I missed hearing his innnings, but Leach and Goold have all the info. Apparently, McClellan gave up all sorts of hard contact but had some good fielding luck, and then came back to retire the last 7 batters he faced. Over three, he k’d three. I’ll be very interested to see how his transition from relief to starting goes. His stock has risen more then any other prospect this spring.

Talking dollars and sense about Colby

Cardinal fans are pretty lucky to have a smart beatwriter like Matthew Leach. He has his most recent mailbag column up at the official site, and he breaks down why Rasmus should be in the minors a little longer.

Rasmus cannot be a free agent until the winter after he has six full years of Major League service. So if he’s on the big league roster every single day from the start of the 2008 season on, then he is eligible for free agency at the end of the 2013 season. If, however, he comes up after even a couple of weeks, then he cannot be a free agent until the end of the 2014 season. Given how much better Rasmus is likely to be in 2014 than he is in 2008, this is relevant. Would you trade one month of a developing rookie for one full year of a star player in his prime? I absolutely would. This is the bigger issue, by far.

The smaller issue is that until Rasmus has roughly 2 1/2 years of Major League service time, he is not eligible for arbitration. So if he comes up, say, Aug. 1, then he will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2011 season. If he’s up before July 1, then he would be arbitration eligible after the 2010 season.

It’s not about whether ownership spends more or less money, per se. But the team does have a budget. And if it has to pay Rasmus, say, an arbitration-determined $7 million in 2011, as opposed to a pre-arbitration $1 million, that’s money that could be spent on another player.

All of this, meanwhile, must be viewed in the context of the 2008 team, which frankly isn’t looking like a great team. If this team looked like a 95-win team, the imperative would be greater to get the best players on the field, regardless.

But if this is more like a 75- or 80-win team, then the extra win or two gained by Rasmus being on the field — if in fact he would be worth that much, which is uncertain — surely is not justified. It’s more important to think about future seasons.

First of all, I have to admire a guy who has the stones to say on his employer’s website before the team plays a real game that they are probably going to suck. I wholeheartedly agree. If they indeed are as bad as forecasted (PECOTA has them at a .457 winning %, I believe) then there is no reason to start the clock on Rasmus. Especially with the TLR talking about handling him like a platoon outfielder. Bringing him up after July 1 makes a lot more sense from a development standpoint and a financial standpoint.

Other fun prospect-y stuff

• Monday Morning Ten Pack is back for ’08. No Cardinals mentioned, but I missed Goldstein’s weekly tour around prospectdom.
• Kary Booher is excited about covering Springfield’s rotation, which could include returnees P.J. Walters, Jaime Garcia, Stuart Pomeranz as well as newcomers Adam Ottavino and Clayton Mortensen.
• Bryan Smith busts out his first edition of the BP College 12, with Ole Miss at #1, and Mizzou #6. Put Long Beach State’s senior RHP Andrew Liebel on your draft radar, he sounds like he’s right up the Cardinals alley when it comes to 2nd-4th rounders.
• Speaking of college, you may have been seeing that covered a lot more around here lately. I’m very excited about fewgoodcards agreeing to do a little recap on a new College Monday series. fgc knows his amateurs like Amaury Marti knows bench-pressing the state of Veracruz, and he’s going to give us the latest dope on who’s stock is rising in the world of college baseball. When June 5th and 6th roll around, we’ll be more in the know and not have to scramble around for stats and scouting reports as much while the Cardinals are making their picks. (I took June 5th off, by the way. It’s like a religious holiday for me now.)