Daily Farm Report – 7/10/08

Erik chiming in here with a quick update: Friend of the blog Keith Law will be on with Jeff Gordon on 590 The Fan at 12:30pm today.

This is old, but I had not seen it before. The Hardball Times analyzes the top draft picks, including scouting video. The bit on Brett Wallace is interesting, comparing his swing to Prince Fielder‘s.

The Cardinals finally gave in and put Colby on the DL with his groin injury. Groin injuries seem to linger – I strained mine a couple of years ago and it wouldn’t go away until I finally stopped doing anything for two weeks.

All the teams were in action today and finished 2-4 on the night.  All the details are after the jump.

One of Life’s Little Lessons

I’m certainly not pretentious enough to claim I was never concerned about Colby Rasmus. I was; although probably not for the reasons that others were. Colby Rasmus came into the season as the undisputed #1 prospect. He tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training for a line of .302/.464/.605 — only to be sent back to Memphis. That’s where the organization thought he should be and I 100% agreed with them. Colby’s hitting isn’t completely without holes and there was also the unfortunate logjam of outfielders. Memphis wasn’t an unreasonable place for Rasmus to begin the season.

Of course, everything kind of fell apart after that. . .

In April, Rasmus hit .210/.306/.371 and people started to get worried. The primary concern was that Rasmus wasn’t elevating the ball but still it was April — everyone slumps, right?

Then May came. .218/.314/.317 would be perfectly acceptable if Rasmus was one of the Cardinals middle infielders but panic was starting to settle into Cardinal Nation. Rumors were flying. The organization messed with his swing. He was disappointed at not making the major league team. Maybe he’s injured. Memphis wasn’t as fun in the clubhouse. He always starts slow. At times, some analysts would rather cavalierly mention that people should be worried about Rasmus (a Kevin Goldstein chat comes to mind). In honesty, this wasn’t just some slow start to be wished away. Rasmus was going through a very real and significant rough patch. The one thing we never heard, however, was that bad scouting reports were coming back.

It wasn’t like scouts were suddenly worried that Rasmus’ swing wasn’t going to translate to the majors. He was still one of the best centerfielders in the minors defensively. It’s easy to look at those slash lines and worry. It’s really easy. I’m sure in some corner of the internet someone was writing the obit for another top prospect and how unreliable prospects are as a general rule. Those things seem to have crumbled by the wayside though.

Rasmus is hitting .370/.460/.611 in the month of June. He has a .241 ISO (in a severe pitcher’s park) and is walking in over 14% of his plate appearances. The walks never actually went away during the slump, which should further illustrate one of the reasons why Rasmus won’t be a total drain on the offense when he goes through a cold patch. Perhaps most encouraging is that Rasmus is back to lacing line drives around the field.

The moral of this story is that talent doesn’t just disappear. We not only knew Rasmus had talent but we’d seen him translate that over the previous years into real results. Rasmus could go 0-for-the rest of the year and that still wouldn’t change my opinion of his long-term potential (warning: hyperbole). There comes a point where Rasmus has to be accepted as a player even with his flaws. He’s probably not going to hit for power to all fields; that’s okay. He’s got plus-plus power to right. He may strikeout more than some would like but he’s going to draw walks too.

Rasmus is today what he was 3 months ago: the Cardinals centerfielder of the future who projects as a perennial All-Star at a premium defensive position. He has the talent to become the best hitter not named Pujols on the St. Louis Cardinals. That may not happen this year or next year, but it will happen. Just got to be a little patient.

Observations from Des Moines – 5/30/08

I attended the Memphis Redbirds game on May 30th in Des Moines. I have not gone through and applied scounting grades like Az did for the 5/4/08 game, but I was able to make some useful observations. I also took a lot of pictures (I was a guest at the game of friends that have season tickets directly behind home plate) which I will share with you after the jump.

I goofed

Interesting article the morning by Joe Strauss about Colby’s slump. It reminded me that I have needed to make a clarification.

Erik’s 6 somewhat groundless hunches for 2008

1. Colby Rasmus will out-hit Jay Bruce and be considered the best prospect in the minors heading into 2009. This is a coin flip that could go either way, but what the heck; in the name of preseason fun I will (not so) boldly make this prediction. I’m counting on some good old-fashioned Dusty discouragement to help bring this one to pass. Have fun watching Corey Patterson for a lot longer then you would like, Reds fans.
2. Jon Jay will win the Texas League batting title. Or at least come very close to it. They say never fall in love with a player in the spring, but Jay did nothing but hit in camp after finally recovering from his injuries last season. He does have some “funk to his game” as KG would say, but several Cardinal scouts predicted he would win a batting title in the majors one day. I don’t know about that, but I think he wins the TL one.
3. Bryan Anderson’s stock will take a tumble. Maybe he’ll improve some behind the plate, but I have a feeling he won’t be the same hitter for some odd reason. Maybe it will be due to the fact that he’s now blocked, or maybe he’ll be overly focused on his defense. I don’t know, but I can’t shake the feeling he’ll be out of the top 10 going into 2009.
4. Tyler Greene will be a higher profile version of this year’s Terry Evans or Joe Mather. Mather and Evans were somewhat toolsy players who developed late, and I think this is the year Greene puts it all together. I’m not saying he’ll become a .300 hitter; that will probably never happen. But if he can realize his potential, I think he’s capable of one day hitting .250/.320./.445 with 30 steals a season while playing excellent D. That’s a pretty valuable player in my book. Admittedly, this prediction is highly hunch-y and I have to make this disclaimer: I’d like to believe that most of the time my hunches are right, my wife just took me to the cleaners in poker based on a good one I thought I had recently. I still haven’t heard the end of it. I guess I should be thankful I have a wife who likes poker. So I could be WAY off on this one. In the same vein and as a bonus prediction I think Daryl Jones improves this season. I don’t think he’ll be super great, but I think he’ll make some strides.
5. David Kopp will be a “top 10” Cardinal prospect going into 2009. The right-handed sinkerball pitcher from Clemson has the potential to throw three plus pitches but was inconsistent in college. Many feel that the problem is not with his arm, but between the ears. With the right coaching (he’ll be under Dennis Martinez at Palm Beach) I believe he will elevate his game and reward the Cards’ confidence for taking him in the 2nd round.
6. The team drafts a college middle infielder in the 1st round. With the big league clubs in dire straights for middle infield help, I think they will look who could deliver some help with the bat relatively fast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Jemile Weeks (Miami FL), Gordon Beckham (Georgia) or Reese Havens (South Carolina). Beckham appears to be the more high risk; high reward who is just now coming into his own, and I could be way off on Havens, as he may be more of a sandwich pick. fewgoodcards, p’fork or unclebuck44 could enlighten us in that regard. I still think Kozma makes the show eventually, and I am keeping my Greene pick in mind. But depth is always a good thing, Havens and Beckham both could move to 2B, or possibly even 3B in Havens case. Izturisism and Milesism must come to an end!

So, what are your some of your hunches for 2008?

Final Impressions from Jupiter, Part One

My week at Spring Training is over, but my sunburn should last another week or so. I wasn’t able to post as often as I would have liked due to my computer situation (borrowed) and my schedule (Mrs. roarke). Regardless, I have several hundred pictures of various Cardinals players and prospects – I’ll post some with my impressions after the jump.

First Impressions

My first day in Jupiter afforded me the opportunity to get a first hand look at some of the prospects we write about for the first time.  My first impressions are after the jump.

It was just one bad day, right?

Yesterday was an ugly day for the Cardinals, losing 20-6 to the Dodgers.  My man in Jupiter described the scene as “pathetic”.  The good news is that Brian Barton continues to make a strong case for making the team.  He went 2-3 yesterday with a triple.  Colby Rasmus (who really needs a good nickname, if you ask me) went 1-2 with a double and a run, and Joe Mather went 1-2 with an RBI single and a run scored. 

 On the pitching side of the prospect ledger, Mark Worrell went one inning and gave up two hits, one a homerun, and walked a man.  His spring ERA is now at 6.00, which puts a damper on my hopes that he would make the club out of Spring Training.  Blake Hawksworth gave up three runs in two innings of work, but struck out five Dodgers. 

 Today, Clayton Mortenson started because Anthony Reyes has flu-like symptoms.  I will be in Florida starting on Wednesday, so I will be reporting back on what I see with pictures and words.

I couldn’t disagree more . . . until Matthew Leach clarifies things

[Update 3/6/08 – 10:00am]

Matthew Leach followed up on the comment that I had a focal seizure reading from Goold’s Birdland below. He offers some clarification that I find reassuring and as I often will vocally object when I disagree with TLR, I want to offer some mild applause for what he’s saying now. From Leach:

Grapefruit action 3/3/08

We still could use some more input on Hoffpauir’s community projection. Seems like it’s been a sleepy Monday.

Grapefruit action is running pretty dry. Not a lot of excitement from today:

Smell the glove: the outfielders

In Dan Fox’s latest column at BP, he looks at minor league outfielders using his SFR (Simple Fielding Runs) system. (You can read the primer on what it is and how it works here.) He has some pretty interesting findings, including a pretty vast disconnect between what the scouts and stats say about Cameron Maybin. Scouts love Maybin, Dan’s system has him pegged as one of the worst fielders in the minors. So I guess that makes Maybin the OF/minor league version of Derek Jeter.

But scouts and stats agree on Colby Rasmus. On 535 balls hit to Rasmus, his SFR was 9.1. Baseball America said that he has game changing range and a strong throwing arm. Kevin Goldstein recently pointed out that one of Colby’s weaknesses is that “he relies too much on his athleticism at times in the field, and needs to improve his reads and routes.” That jives with SFR. On 264 fly balls, Colby was -2.4 SFR. On 171 line drives, Colby was + 12.3 runs, indicating his range was indeed game changing. On 515 total opportunities, Colby’s arm was worth an additional 4.4 runs. When you add what he did throwing and fly catching, Colby was worth an extra 14 runs in the field. Out of all Texas League regular center fielders, Rasmus saved the most runs.

After Colby, who else did well in SFR? Prepare to be a little surprised.

Thank God for John Mozeliak

He’s a smarter guy then Bill Bavasi. I want to echo something lboros pointed out a few weeks ago-

dave cameron of USS Mariner breaks down the proposed adam jones for erik bedard trade and concludes: bad move for the mariners. jones is seattle’s version of colby rasmus, so mentally substitute his name into the article in place of jones’ and you have a cogent case for why the cards ought not to consider a trade of that type.

Rasmus is the better prospect, but Jones is still very, very good. Bedard’s a fine pitcher and all, but he’s not close to being worth that price tag. Sorry Mariner fans, you’ve had to endure so much already as it is.