MLB 2007 Rule 4 Amateur Baseball Draft

[Update 4:54 – azruavatar] I’m taking off for a few hours. I’m perfectly furious over the first two picks we made. Maybe when I cool off, it won’t look so bad but I’m really frustrated right now. We’ll have some draft reactions for you over the next few days and we’ll keep up the Daily Prospect Reports as well.

Thanks everyone for stopping by today. We’ve seen 3x the traffic today that we’ve ever seen before in a single day. I hope you enjoyed following the draft with me even if it didn’t go as we may have wanted. [End Update]

Are you ready to rumble?!?!?! Oops, wrong sport (does anyone else remember being a kid and thinking how cool wrestling was — ya, that was a while ago).

Well, we’ve been coving the upcoming draft for a couple weeks now here at FR and now that it’s here I’m pretty excited. I’ll be covering the cardinals picks as they happen from 1pm CST to 5pm CST on ESPN2. Hopefully, erik can sneak by with some wisdom from time to time but I’m sure that we’ll both be breaking down the draft for the next couple days. VeB will have periodic updates as well (draft thread) so keep an eye over there.

I remember last June when they had the draft. I was at work in downtown STL and I was checking VeB on a semi-regular basis (I’m an intern, we don’t actually do anything) until the site crashed. I was really distressed at the time. Now I took a day off explicitly so I could watch it be televised — yes I’m that much of a baseball geek. I’m also assuming since you’re here checking in on the draft you’ve got a little bit of baseball geek in you too.

So sit back and enjoy the draft.

Cardinals Pick #18 Peter Kozma – Here’s what BA has to say about Kozma who they ranked number 39:

Scouting Report: There may not be a true middle infielder drafted in the first round this year, but Kozma is as good a candidate as any. He impressed scouting directors when his team made a swing through Florida in late March, and he had a three-homer game in an Oklahoma 6-A playoff contest. Kozma has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup. Coming into the spring, some scouts questioned whether he’d be a long-term shortstop, but he has no doubters now. A Wichita State recruit, Kozma draws raves for his consistency and energy as well.

From ESPN who rates on the 20-80 scale, Kozma gets solid 55-ish scores across the board excepting power. Here’s their summary:

Best asset is his feel for the game; really knows how to play. Reminds of a young Michael Young. Has good baseball instincts. Makes contact and has good strike-zone awareness. Sees ball well. Has some pop out in front with bat. Good baserunner. Solid-average arm, especially when moving in. Showed good range to his left. Will be 8-10 homer type, alley-to-alley hitter. Could be a good No.2 bat. Can steal a base, likes to run, makes things happen.

Michael Young (pre-2007) would be nice but I hope he’s better than that defensively. A 55 score is a slightly above average player. A 60 is an allstar caliber player. Basically with their first draft pick, they cardinals failed to pick what ESPN’s scouts think is even an allstar caliber player. But he’s got a great feel for the game.

Cardinals #36 Pick – RHP Clayton Mortenson. From MILB:

While there are often college seniors who make very good pros, it’s rare for there to be one like Mortensen, a legitimate “prospect” on the rise in his senior season. He’s got three usable pitches and a body frame that appears able to handle added strength, which could make his fastball even better. He should be a very intriguing senior sign this summer.

This is worse than the Kozma pick. Horrible. Hate the Cardinals draft so far. Hate. Hate Hate. From BA:

Until this season, the gangly Mortensen was all projection and little production. His velocity took a jump (up to 92 mph) last summer in the West Coast Collegiate League, but his command remained spotty. He was shellacked at Arizona in his first start this season, but since then has had some of the best stuff in the West. Mortensen features a heavy 90-94 mph fastball with excellent sink. His secondary stuff grades as average now, with future plus grades as well: a hard slider and changeup featuring deceptive arm speed. His command is below-average. He’s a senior sign with upside, though, and could go as high as the third round.

Wrong Baseball America. Luhnow and crew were so desperate to get this third rounder they took him 36 overall. (I think I’ve died a little on the inside after the first two picks).

#1 – Tampa Bay – LHP David Price – MILB, ESPN, BA

#2 – Royals – SS Mike Moustakas – MILB, ESPN

#3 – Cubs – 3B Josh Vitters – MILB, ESPN

#4 – Pirates – LHP Daniel Moskos – MILB, ESPN

#5 – Orioles – C Matt Wieters – MILB, ESPN

#6 – Nationals – LHP Ross Detwiler – MILB, ESPN

#7 – Brewers – 1B Matt LaPorta – MILB, ESPN

#8 – Rockies – RHP Casey Weathers – MILB

#9 – Diamondbacks – RHP Jarrod Parker – MILB, ESPN

#10 – Giants – LHP Madison Bumgarner – MILB, ESPN

#11 – Mariners – RHP Phillipe Aumont – MILB, ESPN

#12 – Marlins – 3B Matt Dominguez – MILB, ESPN

#13 – Indians – 3B Beau Mills – MILB

#14 – Braves – OF Jason Heyward – MILB, ESPN

#15 – Reds – C Devin Mesoraco – MILB, ESPN

#16 – Blue Jays – 3B Kevin Ahrens – MILB

#17 – Rangers – RHP Blake Beavan – MILB

#18 – Cardinals – SS Peter Kozma – MILB, ESPN

#19 – Phillies – LHP Joe Savory – MILB, ESPN

#20 – Dodgers – RHP Christopher Withrow – MILB, ESPN

#21 – Blue Jays – C JP Arencibia – MILB

#22 – Giants – RHP Tim Alderson – MILB, ESPN

#23 – Padres – LHP Nicholas Schmidt – MILB, ESPN

#24 – Rangers – RHP Michael Main – MILB, ESPN

#25 – White Sox – LHP Aaron Poreda – MILB

#26 – Athletics – RHP James Simmons – MILB, ESPN

#27 – Tigers – RHP Rick Porcello – MILB, ESPN

#28 – Twins – CF Ben Revere – MILB

#29 – Giants – Wendell Fairly – (no scouting reports)

#30 – Yankees – Andrew Brackman – MILB, ESPN

[AZ 1:00pm ] Sweetness. Bring it on ESPN. Draft coverage begins!!! Steve Phillips is hosting. . . really? ugh. At least Gammons is there.

[AZ 1:10pm] DRays on the clock — and we’re off!!!

[AZ 1:14] Why do the DRays need the full five minutes to make their pick? Anyone?

[AZ 1:15] David Price – #1 pick.

[AZ 1:23] Royals pick Moustakas #2. Cubbies up next.

[AZ 1:25] Previous Cub top draft picks Kerry Wood and Mark Prior — way to jinx the next pick ESPN.

[AZ 1:31] Cubs draft Vitters. Odds on him being converted to a pitcher and needing Tommy John? #18 seems a long way off. . .

[AZ 1:32] Daniel Moskos to the Pirates #4. That’s considerably higher than I would have expected Moskos to go. I’d have picked Detweiler of Moskos.

[AZ 1:38] Orioles take Weiters. Solid pick by the Orioles. I’m always a fan of good hitters that have a good chance of sticking at premium defensive positions. Nationals are up next.

[AZ 1:42] Nice pickup by the Nationals. I think the Pirates missed out on this one.

[AZ 1:48] Brewers select Matt LaPorta. Prince Fielder will likely slide over to SS to make room.

[AZ 1:54] Can you imagine Fielder at SS? The Rockies pick Casey Weathers. I not a huge fan of picking relievers early, but this makes sense for the Rockies. He throws hard with some sinking pitches and Fuentes could be leaving at the trade deadline.

[AZ 1:59] Diamondbacks pick Parker. First HS pitcher selected in the draft.

[AZ 2:04] Bumgarner. . . la de da. Waiting for the Cardinals to pick.

[AZ 2:10] Mariners pick Aumont. I’ll be interested to see what the guys at USSmariner say about that tomorrow.

[AZ 2:17] Dominguez gone. . .Ahrens is still on the board as a nice infield prospect.

[AZ 2:22] Mills is listed as a 3B but he’s likely a DH in the making. I really dislike picking defensively challenged hitters. Have I mentioned that before?

[AZ 2:27] Braves draft a georgia native. . .surprised? I’m not. Huge power potential for Heyward. . .probably a corner outfielder.

[AZ 2:33] Devin Mesaraco — I’m caught off guard by that. Ahrens and Main still on the board.

[AZ 2:35] No seriously. Prince Fielder future SS. He’s got better intagibles than Jeter. He may even be in Jeter’s defensive class. ZING! The Mesoraco pick isn’t high, I just wasn’t expecting it from the Reds.

[AZ 2:38] Damn you Blue Jays.

[AZ 2:40] Arrieta is still on the board — please no, please no, please no

[AZ 2:42] There are some good arms out there: Porcello and Main (I’m not a harvey fan but he’s there too).

[AZ 2:45] here we go cardinals here we go.

[AZ 2:47] ugh. . .i’ll get back to you on this pick.

[erik 2:49] seems like a bit of a reach to me. solid, not spectacular. i would’ve rather had main or another pitcher. not happening w/luhnow. darn.

[AZ 2:54] erik’s nicer than I am. I really dislike this pick. There are far better players on the board. I don’t care if he’s a middle infielder he wasn’t a #18 pick. blech.

[AZ 2:59] Ok – well we still have 3 picks in the 1st/2nd round left. Maybe we’ll get some higher upside player at 36.

[AZ 3:01] From BP chat Bryan Smith:

BSmith (12:59:59 PM PST): Interesting pick by the Cardinals, who take the draft’s first shortstop in Peter Kozma. It’s a bit of an overdraft relative to most draft boards, but Kozma has a little less risk than your average prep shortstop. What comes with that, however, is less of an upside than other prep shortstops in the draft like Justin Jackson, Will Middlebrooks, and to me, Drew Cumberland.

Maybe he’ll move through the system fast but I think the consensus is that he was a little overdrafted. Still he’s a Cardinal now so it’s time to welcome him to the Cardinal Family!

[AZ 3:07] Still mourning the pass on Porcello. When you’re the Cardinals the ‘signability’ issue shouldn’t play a role in your first round pick. Sorry but it shouldn’t.

[AZ 3:14] I’m really hopeful they get the #36 pick in before 5pm. It’s gonna be close call though. I kinda feel bad for Kozma. He’s got really limited upside on a year when the Cardinals had a chance at much better players. I’m not sure it’s gonna be easy to embrace him as a player for a couple years. . .when I can forget about who we passed on. Padres got fooled into picking a safe college pitcher — is there some collusion going on against Porcello?

[AZ 3:18] I’m not really a Boras detractor but if I’m Porcello, I got to wonder if Boras hasn’t serious hurt my draft money and slot.

[AZ 3:20] Nice pick by the Rangers. (Would have been an acceptable pick by the Cardinals at 18).

[AZ 3:26] I’m thinking about the Kozma pick and I think his upside is someone like Marcus Giles but playing SS. Giles doesn’t excel anywhere but he’s good for a .280/.350/.450 line with good defense. Again, this isn’t what I was hoping for from a #1 pick but I think that’s what we got. Marcus Giles type players can be underrated but I think the opposite happened here.

[AZ 3:36] They snagged Andrew Miller at #6 last year and now they get Porcello. A fantastic pick by the Tigers. Kudos to them for stepping up to the plate and being prepared to pay the money that a top talent is going to want.

[AZ 3:43] Twins pick a tiny CF with no power. Yuck. I’m glad we didn’t make that pick. I’m totally unconvinced that he’ll be able to hit for average or power or even get on base. He does have great speed and baserunning skills. Steve Phillips is talking about manufacturing runs with Revere. Phillips was a GM. No, don’t laugh, it’s true. This is a worse pick than Kozma imo.

[AZ 3:45] Baseball America had Revere as the 135th best prospect. WOWzer that looks like a bad pick.

[AZ 3:50] BA lists Fairley as the best HS athlete. He was a multiple sport athlete and ESPN is loving this pick. Comparisons to Carl Crawford are flying left and right. Steve Phillips literally just repeated what Gammons said word for word as if it was his own thought. Classic!

[AZ 3:54] Love the Brackman pick. Good point by some guy on ESPN – “If this was in Februrary, Brackman would be at the top half of this first round”. He may need TJ surgery in the near future but I still think this is a great upside pick.

[AZ 4:10] Players the Cardinals should target at #36 – Matt Harvey, Josh Smoker, Jack McGeary

[AZ 4:45] Sorry stepped away for a bit. Back for a few more minutes of draft talk.

[AZ 4:53] From the BP chat again. Bryan Smith succintly sums up my frustration with the Kozma pick:

BSmith (2:52:08 PM PST): Earlier I wondered why the Cardinals took Peter Kozma ahead of Justin Jackson and Drew Cumberland … now, the two go back-to-back in sandwich round.

[erik 5:28] the Clay Mortensen pick has me scratching my head. sounds like he has nominal to decent stuff, but was projected more as a 4th rounder. He posted a 3.92 ERA in an extreme pitchers park. There was so much more to choose from, like say Mitch Canham, Brett Cecil, Nathan Vineyard, Corey Brown, Matt Mangini. It’s dreadful, or at least that’s how I see it now.

[erik 5:39] just when I got done groaning over Mortensen, they do it again and pick David Kopp. This guy’s ceiling looks to be 4th starter. He’s allowed more hits then innings pitched and has a K/9 rate of 6.88. That’s just not worth a 2nd round pick. What the heck is Luhnow doing? I’m officially angry, to put it very mildly.

[erik 5:46] Another college pitcher. Jess Todd. I don’t know, I’m tempted to be pretty harsh with criticism right now. I’ll wait til I can get home and examine these guys more, but color me dismayed right now. What a let down this day has been.

[erik 6:27] Cardinals pick in the 3rd round David Descalso, an infielder from UC Davis. I haven’t heard of him until now. His line this year were .397/.474/.569. Adjusted for park and schedule, his OPS comes out to be 1.248, for what it’s worth. Matt Harvey was still (!) on the board, yet they passed. I’m not sure what to make of this, he plays third, has shown little to no power. I want to give the benefit of the doubt, but I’m pretty exasperated at this point.

[erik] still trapped at work, but going home now. Kyle Russell. YES! Love the pick. Love it, love it. love it. Best news I’ve had all day.