Erik’s 6 somewhat groundless hunches for 2008

1. Colby Rasmus will out-hit Jay Bruce and be considered the best prospect in the minors heading into 2009. This is a coin flip that could go either way, but what the heck; in the name of preseason fun I will (not so) boldly make this prediction. I’m counting on some good old-fashioned Dusty discouragement to help bring this one to pass. Have fun watching Corey Patterson for a lot longer then you would like, Reds fans.
2. Jon Jay will win the Texas League batting title. Or at least come very close to it. They say never fall in love with a player in the spring, but Jay did nothing but hit in camp after finally recovering from his injuries last season. He does have some “funk to his game” as KG would say, but several Cardinal scouts predicted he would win a batting title in the majors one day. I don’t know about that, but I think he wins the TL one.
3. Bryan Anderson’s stock will take a tumble. Maybe he’ll improve some behind the plate, but I have a feeling he won’t be the same hitter for some odd reason. Maybe it will be due to the fact that he’s now blocked, or maybe he’ll be overly focused on his defense. I don’t know, but I can’t shake the feeling he’ll be out of the top 10 going into 2009.
4. Tyler Greene will be a higher profile version of this year’s Terry Evans or Joe Mather. Mather and Evans were somewhat toolsy players who developed late, and I think this is the year Greene puts it all together. I’m not saying he’ll become a .300 hitter; that will probably never happen. But if he can realize his potential, I think he’s capable of one day hitting .250/.320./.445 with 30 steals a season while playing excellent D. That’s a pretty valuable player in my book. Admittedly, this prediction is highly hunch-y and I have to make this disclaimer: I’d like to believe that most of the time my hunches are right, my wife just took me to the cleaners in poker based on a good one I thought I had recently. I still haven’t heard the end of it. I guess I should be thankful I have a wife who likes poker. So I could be WAY off on this one. In the same vein and as a bonus prediction I think Daryl Jones improves this season. I don’t think he’ll be super great, but I think he’ll make some strides.
5. David Kopp will be a “top 10” Cardinal prospect going into 2009. The right-handed sinkerball pitcher from Clemson has the potential to throw three plus pitches but was inconsistent in college. Many feel that the problem is not with his arm, but between the ears. With the right coaching (he’ll be under Dennis Martinez at Palm Beach) I believe he will elevate his game and reward the Cards’ confidence for taking him in the 2nd round.
6. The team drafts a college middle infielder in the 1st round. With the big league clubs in dire straights for middle infield help, I think they will look who could deliver some help with the bat relatively fast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Jemile Weeks (Miami FL), Gordon Beckham (Georgia) or Reese Havens (South Carolina). Beckham appears to be the more high risk; high reward who is just now coming into his own, and I could be way off on Havens, as he may be more of a sandwich pick. fewgoodcards, p’fork or unclebuck44 could enlighten us in that regard. I still think Kozma makes the show eventually, and I am keeping my Greene pick in mind. But depth is always a good thing, Havens and Beckham both could move to 2B, or possibly even 3B in Havens case. Izturisism and Milesism must come to an end!

So, what are your some of your hunches for 2008?

Predictions 08

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has started to publish his organizational previews this past week, and he takes a pretty nice look at the Cardinals. He gives you ten players to watch, his under the radar players, and predictions on who will be the organization’s player and pitcher of the year, comeback player of the year (is there such a thing?) and the team to watch. I thought for fun we could do the same. AZ, Roarke can feel free to jump in on the fun with their own posts or just in the comments if they wanna.

Update on upside

Nate Silver introduced the PECOTA top 100 today, Bryan Anderson was rated the 38th best prospect with an upside score of 88.1. Colby Rasmus came in 65th. (See this post for more on upside scores and what they mean.)

Where the fit in with players who play their same position is interesting. Jaime Garcia’s upside score of 40 ranked him #8 among all LHP. Rasmus was 13th among all minor league CFers. Jay was also 13th of corner OFers. Anderson was 3rd among all catchers.

10 Things to Watch in 2007

As the new season draws ever so close, here’s 10 things I’ll be watching closely in the 2007 season:

1. How quickly can Colby adjust to AA? He was slow to get going both at the low and high A level last season. If he has a bad April I won’t worry too much, if he’s looking over matched after that I might start to worry a little.

2. Jaime Garcia’s strikeout rate. Garcia struck out a batter per inning for the Quad Cities, but only about 6 per 9 innings at Palm Beach. Reports were he was becoming too curve happy. Just reading Goold’s “Vuch Report”, early word is Garcia’s velocity is up a little this spring and he’s been getting lots of strikeouts in the exhibition games. Good news.

3. Chris Perez’s rapid ascension. He already pitched a nice inning this past Sunday, facing big leaguers Brian Roberts, Freddy Bynum and Melvin Mora, setting them down in order. He could now break camp at AA, with Sillman being his set up man. Watch his platoon split.

4. Speaking of platoon splits, watch Ottavino’s. 1.052 OPS against lefties at QC last season.

5. Bryan Anderson and “catcher fatigue syndrome” as John Sickels calls it. It can happen to any catcher, no matter how good he is. Just ask Jarrod Saltala…what’s his name.

6. Jon Jay. Lower minors all star or pro hitter? AA separates the men from the boys, and scouts and stat heads alike have their doubts about Jay despite his .342 average last season for QC.

7. Daryl Jones’s growth. For 2 seasons we’ve heard about his toolsiness, but now it’s time to see a little better results. He had a nice go at the Appy and all, I’m hungry for more.

8. Lambert. C’mon kid, no one likes to be remembered as a bust.

9. Tommy Pham. With a half decent season, he could surpass Jones’s prospect status as the resident “super tool-sy guy”. If he really hits, he could be a top 5er Cardinal in next years edition of the Baseball America Handbook. I won’t get too ahead of myself, just sayin’ is all.

10. Mark McCormick’s health. Can he come back from shoulder surgery and still throw in the high nineties?

Hey, rook!: Guys I wouldn’t be shocked to see get some MLB service time this season are Amaury “Bill Brasky” Cazana, Dennis Dove, Chris Perez and Brendan Ryan. Oh, and Rick Ankiel.

Terry Evans Award: Kooky prediction- Mike Ferris will wake up one day, find religion, learn to hit and get traded for a struggling pitcher who goes on to be a post season hero.

Hey, who’s that guy?: Jason Motte, ex-Yadier Molina-ish catcher (all arm/defense, no hit) now turned fireball reliever. He can hit 95 and has a surprising feel for his slider. Another who I guess has already surprised already, and could continue to do so: Nathan Southard.

Trade bait: Mark Hamilton. He’s not moving to the OF. As Gump has said, “that’s all I got to say about that.”

Hotlinks and mashed potatoes

lboros had an excellent interview with Jeff Luhnow. There’s some pretty interesting stuff there, including insight on the Cardinals mixed philosophy on their draft strategy of scouting and stats, drawing wisdom from the likes of Sig Mejdal (famous stat head from Sam Walker’s Fantasyland) and Joe Alvarez. Luhnow’s a very sharp guy, and there’s a chance he could be the GM once Walt decides to ride off into the sunset.

Huzzah! Chris Narveson cleared waivers He now will join the AAA roster and is a lock for the rotation along with Blake Hawksworth. I would’ve liked to see him get a better look this spring at the rotation, but them’s the breaks. I’m surprised no one scooped him up. Falkenborg also went down along with Narvie.

MLB.com has a full org spring training report.

It’s official, Rasmus and Jon Jay to break camp with the Springfield team. That’s pretty big news and I’m glad to see them both being aggressively promoted. Stavinoha, Gorecki, Cazana (the artist formerly known as Marti) could fill the other corner spot.

Jose Martinez is one of BA’s breakout candidates going into 2007:

The Cardinals rave about his instincts, and one source with the club calls him the best defensive infielder in the organization. The performance has been there with the bat since Martinez signed, so the only question is whether or not he’ll be able to stay at short. “He doesn’t have all the tools. He’s a below-average runner, for example, and that may mean he has below average range, but his hands are plus-plus,” a front-office official with an American League club said. “So taking the question in range into the equation, he’s likely a second baseman at best, a utility guy at worst. He has enough power to generate extra base hits and he has decent plate discipline.”

See Cardblogger Dan’s take on Nick Webber’s recent move back to the pen. He’s optimistic about the move, as am I.

The 26th Man is riled up about Chris Perez’s future.

Troy Cate has one nasty bruise.

Just when I was ready to bury Travis Hanson, he’s back.

Kevin Goldstein has his state of the NL Central prospects, and he’s pretty excited about Daryl Jones.

I Like Him Better Than Most: Also a candidate for the Jackson/Griffin award (ed note: tool-sy busts), I could be a complete sucker for outfielder Daryl Jones’ tools and ceiling, but the improvements he made from 2005 to 2006 were impressive, and his full-season debut is met with great anticipation.

He’s also pretty bearish on my personal prospect pet Jon Jay.

Ross Detwiler update: Detwiler saw his shutout disappear in a 3 run 8th inning against Northern Iowa, but his team rallied back to get the victory 4-3. He allowed 6 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs and struck out 12

My New Top Ten

In light of recent developments which I’ll discuss in a bit, here’s my latest “Top 10”, take it for what it’s worth:

1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Jon Jay
8. Tyler Greene
9. Dennis Dove
10. Cody Haerther

Rasmus and Garcia are still on top, Chris Perez soars up to #3. Reason being is the early word is he’s hitting 95 on the gun already in camp, and I read a very nice review from Carlos Gomez at BTF, who’s opinion I respect.

I’m higher on Bryan Anderson now then I was before due to his high UPSIDE scores and some good comps, though I’m worried about him contracting “young catcher stagnation syndrome” at some point.

Jon Jay goes to #7, but I still like him like him quite a bit. He’s in the Memphis camp right now, which shows me the Cardinals are quite serious about promoting him aggressively. We’ll see how he fares against stiffer competition. In case you missed it, Jeff Albert broke down his swing at VEB.

Dove shoots way up after making a very favorable impression in camp thus far, flashing a 97 mph 2 seamer. That begs me to ask- how fast he could throw a 4 seamer? Has he tried to throw it? I didn’t know he worked exclusively with the 2 seamer, you’d think he’d have at least a slightly higher GB% then 40% at Palm Beach. With the loss of Kinney, I’m rooting for Dove to break camp with the big club. Thus far he’s shown pretty good poise and command, and the Cardinals certainly could use a power arm in the pen.

Notably now off the list is Mark McCormick. McCormick has to undergo shoulder surgery to repair some debridement, and that ain’t good being that his main asset is his ability to throw hard. Without velocity, he’s nothing, we’ll have to see if he can rebound. Narrowly missing is Daryl Jones. I had a hard time shuffling between Jones, Hamilton and Haerther, but in the end it came down to Haerther having done more at higher levels. I guess I’m not all that high on Jones compared to others, his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling, but until he converts those tools into game usable skills I’m not super excited about him.

Prospects Ranked by Projected VORP

1.  Jon Jay
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Cody Haerther
5. Tyler Greene
6. Chris Narveson
7. Nick Stavinoha
8. Chris Perez

These are not necessarily how these prospects would rank in the organization, this is just how PECOTA judges their recent work to project how well the player would fare in the majors.

• Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus were separated by only one tenth of a point, though I’m sure we all agree that Rasmus has the higher ceiling. It’s pretty exciting that projects so well already. One of Rasmus’s top comps is the oft-rumored to be traded Lastings Milledge of the Mets’ system. Jay’s projected VORP was higher than any left fielder without major league experience. PECOTA thinks he could nearly hit .300 in the majors next year.
• Jaime Garcia’s projected VORP is higher then any other Cardinal starter not named Carpenter, Wainwright and Reyes (and Jeff Weaver, should he resign.) PECOTA believes Garcia would be a more valuable starter then Mark Mulder and Kip Wells by a full win above replacement.
• Cody Haerther’s VORP is about the same as Juan Encarnacion’s and higher then Preston Wilson’s.
• Despite his hacky-ness, Tyler Greene isn’t a full win less then Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein. That bodes well for his future, however one of his top comps was John Nelson, the soon to be 28 year old and two true outcome SS for Memphis, also a recent September call up.
• The rest: Narveson, Stavinoha and Perez are closer to replacement level.  Chris Perez is on the fast track and should be promoted aggressively. As a reliever, he doesn’t need to learn 2 or 3 new pitches like a starter, he just needs to get a little more experience. I expect Stavinoha to improve after being slowed by an ankle injury last season. Narveson is probably as big league ready as he’ll ever be. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’ll be exposed to waivers. Considering he’s a long shot to make the rotation and  the Nats are desperate for pitching, why not flip Narvie for Church straight up? It’s not like they are going to suddenly like Ryan Church. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

Also of note- Tagg Bozied, who was signed as a minor league free agent and is the owner of the best name ever is very close to Haerther’s projected VORP. Top prospects Bryan Anderson and Daryl Jones were forecasted way below replacement level, they are still pretty far from reaching their ceilings. Hawksworth, Lambert, Ottavino and McCormick were all forecasted to be below replacement level. Ex-Cardinal prospect Daric Barton’s projection wasn’t all that hot. I can’t say the same for Dan Haren.

Quick Linkage

• Beyond the Boxscore has a profile of Dennis Dove.
• The P-D has an interview with Colby Rasmus.
• The Pecota‘s are out, you have to have a subscription.. I will say that Colby Rasmus, Jon Jay and Jaime Garcia have pretty favorable projections, having more points of VORP then some of the guys who will have starting positions on the MLB roster. Jay in particular projects well, a .300 hitter right now in the majors.. Folks have said the what he is now and his ceiling aren’t that far apart, PECOTA agrees.
• The Swing have new ownership.
• Trey Hearne was voted the South Texas Professional Baseball Player of the Year.

A look at batted balls

Over at minorleaguesplits.com they have batted ball data, and I was curious to see how some of the Cardinal hitting prospects did. I killed some of my Christmas break time to break down the percentages. Anyway, here it is, sorry for doing it ugly with the cut and paste from excel. The left is the players’ numbers, the middle numbers with ‘L’s in front is for league averages. The total numbers of balls in play are in red. I also included homeruns as a percentage to fly balls to see who’s been hitting the ball hard. (See Greene, Tyler)

A few things that really stick out to me-

• A big reason Jon Jay hit .342 last season without a doubt is that high line drive rate. While not all line drives are the same, they do fall for hits 75% of the time in the majors, I’d imagine it isn’t much different in the minors.
• I see why Haerther’s power/average numbers were considerably down with him putting the ball on the ground half the time he puts it in play.
• Tyler Greene really showed some nice power at QC. I’ve been skeptical of Greene with his free-swinging nature and all, but with that sort of power and speed combo (33 stolen bases in 36 attempts) coming from the shortstop position,  I’ve probably undervalued him a bit.
• There’s just so much to like about Rasmus. He hit a lot less grounders and a lot more fly balls then the average player. And according to a free article at Scout.com, he’s put on 20 pounds this winter so far, so expect his fly balls to turn into more and more homeruns.
• Stavinoha hit 7 homeruns in August after only hitting 5 all year previously. He hurt his ankle early in the season, it may have hampered him for a for much of the season. But for August his HR/F was 17%, maybe more about what we should expect from Stavy in terms of power.
• Hamilton was hammering NY Penn League pitchers, but had a tougher time adjusting to the Midwest League. Still pretty intriguing power from the Tulane product.

Of course a lot of these are pretty small samples, but I found it pretty interesting to look at. Minor League Splits really is a great resource, it’ll be interesting how some of these trends will change for some of the players this upcoming season, and how much of it will remain the same for others. [edit]-I just realized I missed a player I should not have overlooked-Mark Shorey of Johnson City.

GB% 49%-LD% 15%-FB%-33%-PU%-4% HR 13- HR/F% -28%. Pretty impressive pop.