Three Up, Three Down

I’m starting a new series, something that could be weekly but more likely bi-weekly. It’s just a quick glance at the present “hots” and “nots” in the system. Of course, there will usually be more then three players that fall in those categories at any given time; I’m just looking at the ones that stand out to me at the moment. So don’t be upset if I leave out your favorite player, it’s no snub. In this edition, I could’ve very easily talked about Clayton Mortensen, Bryan Anderson, and Daryl Jones in the “Who’s Up?” section. And I could’ve just as easily talked about Thomas Eager, Kenny Maiques or Colby Rasmus in the “Who’s Not” section. (On the other hand, the Raz is coming on a bit lately.) Chances are that player will probably get a mention in the next edition anyway. Of course, you can make an argument for those who are standing out to you, obviously that is part of the fun, and what makes the FR community as enjoyable as it is.

Without further adieu…

Final Impressions from Jupiter, Part Two

One last post about my trip to Spring Training and then I swear I’ll shut up about it.  This one will be more observational and less photo-riffic (although I can’t resist throwing a few more pictures out there).  So, after the jump I’ll list the guys that made positive and negative impressions during my time in Florida.

I’m not supposed to open this gate till 1:00, but…

My father and I got an almost-private showing of morning practice for the minor league squads on Monday. We were lucky enough to run into Brandon Dickson‘s father outside the gates to the minor league side of camp. He got a guard to let him and us into the practice facilities at about 10:00am. Brandon was undrafted out of Tusculum College and was Quad Cities Pitcher of the Year in 2007 (according to his father). His numbers look pretty good, with a nice K rate, although his father said he was more of a grounball pitcher than a strikeout pitcher.

More observations from Monday after the jump.

Predictions 08

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has started to publish his organizational previews this past week, and he takes a pretty nice look at the Cardinals. He gives you ten players to watch, his under the radar players, and predictions on who will be the organization’s player and pitcher of the year, comeback player of the year (is there such a thing?) and the team to watch. I thought for fun we could do the same. AZ, Roarke can feel free to jump in on the fun with their own posts or just in the comments if they wanna.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Greene

It’s a crucial season upcoming for Tyler Greene.

Smell the glove

(Update: I republished all the Cardinal affiliates with their numbers in google docs for those of you too lazy to sort. 🙂 Click here to see)

Dan Fox rocks. I don’t know if you’ve been following his research at BP on his new fielding metric Simple Fielding Runs or not, but it’s worth the read if you don’t mind hearing about some methods. Of course, the good part is when he gets to the numbers…until you find out just how bad Chris Duncan really is. On the flip side, you hear again just how good Pujols is.

Fox also just provided a download of SFR that included minor league infield data. Huge props to him.

So how did some of our infield prospects rate?

Rank the middle infielders

After yesterday’s fun discussion, I thought I’d strike up another friendly converstation over our middle infield prospects. I’ll give you the numbers from where the player played most of his season and a brief synopsis of the player’s skills.

Chain Reaction

Hat tip to whiteyball, Mark Hamilton moves up to AA Springfield.  Per Booher at the Springfield News-Leader:

Mark Hamilton, a second-round supplemental pick from Tulane in June 2006, is in the Springfield Cardinals’ starting lineup tonight. […] Hamilton, a left-handed bat, was hitting .290 with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs. He was recently voted to the Florida State League All-Star team.

Also moving up is Adam Daniels, who has seemed ready for a while this season.  He’s posting a 60%+ groundball rate, fantastic control (4% BB rate) and 18% K rate:

The Cardinals also will call on former Oklahoma State pitcher Adam Daniels tonight. Daniels has pitched in Palm Beach all season.

Tyler Greene goes to the DL with a knee injury.  This is something that could completely derail what little prospect status Greene had left depending on it’s severity.  If he’s blown a ligament. . .well, I don’t want to think about that:

And in some discouraging news, the team placed shortstop Tyler Greene on the disabled list. […] Greene, a first-round draft pick in 2005, has been money defenisvely this season. But he suffered a knee injury taking a swing Saturday night at Wichita and has not played since.

Not a whole lot to add to this news. 

Daily Prospect Report 6/17/2007

[updated] Tyler Greene’s has injured his knee. It doesn’t sound so good.

The outlook for Springfield shortstop Tyler Greene does not appear favorable for the 2005 first-round draft pick, who on Sunday afternoon limped into the clubhouse a day after he injured his right knee in taking a swing.

Greene will undergo medical evaluations today to determine the seriousness of the injury, suffered in the third inning of Springfield’s 6-5 win at Wichita, Kan.

Team trainer Brad LaRosa described the injury as being in back of the knee, adding that Greene said he felt a “pop” as he fouled off a pitch. “Where he’s sore is not a good thing,” LaRosa said.

Hat tip, DanUp.

Just to mix things up a little bit, I’m working from the ground up here, starting with a look at Batavia’s roster:

Barring any signings between now and Tuesday, The Batavia Muckdogs have announced their roster. Here’s the link.

C – Mike Hill, Nick Derba, Steve Gonzalez, David Carpenter (DL)
1B – Andrew Brown, Scott Thomas
2B – Ross Oeder, Will Groff
SS – Oliver Marmol
3B – Daniel Delscalso, Brian Cartie
OF -Antone DeJesus, Collin Fanning, Roberto Marquez, Justin Roberson
P – Clayton Mortenson, David Kopp (who recently signed per the Birdhouse), Jess Todd, Thomas Eager, Josh Wilson, Josh Dew, Clayton Long, Wayne Daman, Davis Biradello, Logan Collier, Josh Fritsche, Brandon Garner, Ryan Hodinka, JD Stambaugh.

Wow, that’s 15 pitchers, which means we’ll be seeing the piggyback system again. I think it’s a smart idea here with all their college pitchers, these guys have already thrown a lot of pitches already this season so no need to try and stretch them too far. Interesting to see Mike Hill at catcher, he played 1st base for Sam F. Austin this season but has catching experience. If he can keep slugging at catcher position then he could prove to be one of the bigger steals of the draft. The intrigue with this team is that all of the starters they drafted on day one will be pitching for this team.
Quad Cities 6, Beloit 2

• Great pitching performance today by both pitchers. P.J. Walters allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 5. Elvis Hernandez pitched 4 innings of one hit ball, striking out 4.
• Daryl Jones knocked in 2 with a double, his only hit of the game. He also committed a fielding error.
• Christian Lopez went 2 for 3 with a triple and a walk.
• Donovan Solano went 2 for 4.
• Jared Schweitzer went 0 for 2 but drew 2 walks.

Springfield 1, Arkansas 6

• The Cardinals had their 8 game win streak snapped tonight.
• I’m getting a little concerned about Colby Rasmus. He went 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout tonight. After posting a 1.138 OPS for the month of May, he’s got just a .501 OPS for the month of June. He’s hit safely just 10 times in 64 at bats.
• Jaime Garcia went 5 and 2 thirds allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk, striking out 6 and getting 8 ground ball outs.
• Mike Cooper allowed 3 runs in one inning.
• Mike Ferris went 2 for 3 with a HR.
• Juan Lucena went 2 for 3 with a double.

Memphis 5, Iowa 4

• Edgar Gonzalez, Ryan Christianson, Tagg Bozied and Skip Schumaker all went yard.
• Troy Percival pitched a scoreless inning, walking 1.
• Don’t look now, but it looks like Skip Schumaker’s hitting lessons with Mark McGwire and Chris Duncan this summer may be starting to pay off. He’s hitting .314/.379/.500. That’s right, folks. Skip Schumaker has a .500 slugging %. Xanadu.
• After hitting for a HR hat trick in the previous game, Rick Ankiel was rested.

Checking in with BA’s Top 30 Cardinal Prospects: 11-19

Ok, time to move on to part two of the series. In case you missed it, here’s part one. Before the season started, Baseball America released their handbook in their usual format. If you’ve been living on Mars, they go through all 30 teams listing their top 30 prospects for each team. And away we go…

19. Tyler Johnson- What’s more wrong with this picture? The fact that the #19 rated Cardinal prospect is a LOOGy or the fact that he had already played in 56 games last season? I’m gonna take a pass on this one, y’all know TyJo by now.

18. Tyler Herron- As a first round supplemental pick out of high school in 2005, Herron bombed in his debut. He allowed 11 homers in 50 innings and put up an ugly 5.62 ERA. Last year he made some gains with posting a 4.13 at the rookie level, his strikeout rate dropped rather starkly. This season has been another story. At 20 years old it’s starting to come together, as he’s struck out 59 while walking 12, and has allowed just 1 homer in 62 IP. And he has a 57% ground ball rate. He has the potential to throw 3 plus pitches with his sinker/change/curve combo and at his young age he has lots of room for growth.

17. Tyler Greene- Yep, he’s still striking out in 1/4 of his plate appearances, but he’s still showing that tantalizing power/speed combo. 50% of his hits have gone for extra bases and he’s stolen 9 bases. Most strikingly he’s leading the Texas League in line drive % with 25%. When he makes contact, good things happen. I’d like see him improve his BB/K ratio before I can take him too seriously, but I can’t say I dislike everything I’m seeing here.

16. Cody Haerther– Had problems with his wrist, came back in May and played 10 games, then broke his hamate bone. Tough luck.

15. Chris Narveson- Well, heck. Did he hurt his oblique or was it the shoulder? I guess it was both. The Memphis Commercial-Appeal recently reported that he aggravated the oblique again, it’s uncertain when he’ll get start pitching again. Bad timing, a spot in the big league rotation is wide open right now.

14. Chris Lambert- Do I have to talk about this? He’s done, dead, toast, fuggahtabowdit. For Memphis, he has a 7.20 ERA out of the bullpen with 19 K’s to 9 walks in 20 innings. Reports earlier this year was his velocity was way down, the 85-90 range and thus the move to the bullpen. That 2004 draft was one for the ages.

13. Mark Hamilton- His stock is up, hitting .300/.352/.540 in a tough park. His 13 homers are good for 3rd in the FSL and 15.7% of the balls he has hit have cleared the fence, which leads the league out of all qualified batters. His April was miserable and has since started wearing glasses. 4 eyes are better then 2 sometimes. With no continuity at first base in Springfield (Mather plays RF frequently) and Brandon Buckman continuing to rake for the MWL, I have to think a promotion could be forthcoming.

12. Brendan Ryan- See lboros’s in depth report on Ryan. He’s hitting just .255/.306/.340. It sounds like we’ll be getting more of a look at him soon with Eckstein’s back issues. Is he a suitable replacement for Eckstein? He’ll have to start to hit more consistently to make it happen. If not, then could at least replace Aaron Miles.

11. Mitchell Boggs- On the surface, his 4.22 ERA seems to be acceptable enough. Below the surface, his 1.44 K/BB ratio leaves something to be desired. He’s done an acceptable job of keeping the ball in the park considering his league and park and on the ground. While I’m listening to tonight’s latest embarrassing disaster, maybe they should consider him for a spot start.

My New Top Ten

In light of recent developments which I’ll discuss in a bit, here’s my latest “Top 10”, take it for what it’s worth:

1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Jon Jay
8. Tyler Greene
9. Dennis Dove
10. Cody Haerther

Rasmus and Garcia are still on top, Chris Perez soars up to #3. Reason being is the early word is he’s hitting 95 on the gun already in camp, and I read a very nice review from Carlos Gomez at BTF, who’s opinion I respect.

I’m higher on Bryan Anderson now then I was before due to his high UPSIDE scores and some good comps, though I’m worried about him contracting “young catcher stagnation syndrome” at some point.

Jon Jay goes to #7, but I still like him like him quite a bit. He’s in the Memphis camp right now, which shows me the Cardinals are quite serious about promoting him aggressively. We’ll see how he fares against stiffer competition. In case you missed it, Jeff Albert broke down his swing at VEB.

Dove shoots way up after making a very favorable impression in camp thus far, flashing a 97 mph 2 seamer. That begs me to ask- how fast he could throw a 4 seamer? Has he tried to throw it? I didn’t know he worked exclusively with the 2 seamer, you’d think he’d have at least a slightly higher GB% then 40% at Palm Beach. With the loss of Kinney, I’m rooting for Dove to break camp with the big club. Thus far he’s shown pretty good poise and command, and the Cardinals certainly could use a power arm in the pen.

Notably now off the list is Mark McCormick. McCormick has to undergo shoulder surgery to repair some debridement, and that ain’t good being that his main asset is his ability to throw hard. Without velocity, he’s nothing, we’ll have to see if he can rebound. Narrowly missing is Daryl Jones. I had a hard time shuffling between Jones, Hamilton and Haerther, but in the end it came down to Haerther having done more at higher levels. I guess I’m not all that high on Jones compared to others, his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling, but until he converts those tools into game usable skills I’m not super excited about him.

Tyler Greene

I like Tyler Greene, but he’s an odd duck. John Sickels summed it up when he called Greene “Rob Deer with speed who plays shortstop with a good glove” He’s in most of the top 10 rankings for Cardinal prospects, but some are skeptical he’ll ever live up to his ceiling.

A 2nd team high school All-American, Greene was originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 2nd round, he passed at the chance to go pro in order to attend Georgia Tech. He fared well in college, but his big year was his senior year, where he hit .372/460/.584 and stole 31 bases in 32 tries. On the negative, he also struck out 71 times in 269 at bats. He was considered the 40th best prospect in the country by Baseball America. The Cardinals had scouted him heavily and took him as the 30th pick of the ’05 draft. Some wondered how well Greene’s abilities would transfer to the pro game, outside of his speed.

Those doubts began seemed to be confirmed as Greene hit .265/.343/.377 between Johnson City and Palm Beach in his first season. He also stole 19 bases in 20 attempts, but hit only 3 home runs. Despite his performance, the Cardinals kept him at A+ to start 2006 and he only hit .224 and had 23 errors. Reportedly, his lack of offense weighed on him and cost him concentration in the field. It also cost him a demotion to Quad Cities, but that’s when things started to turnaround. Greene smacked 15 home runs, and hit .287/.375/.552 for the Swing. In order to keep Greene happy there is the thought that he could bypass pitcher-friendly Palm Beach and go to Springfield for ’07, which is much more of a hitter’s environment. That’s probably not a bad idea, but he’s going to get a lot less mistakes thrown his way so he’ll need to adjust.

Here are Greene’s strengths by the numbers:

• Power/Speed combo-His power speed number is 25.4, to make that relative that’s a decimal point lower then NL ROY Hanley Ramirez’s number last season.
• 52 stolen bases out of 56 attempts, a 93% success rate. Not only does he possess good speed, he makes excellent reads and gets good jumps.
• Underscoring his power, 26% of his fly balls cleared the fence for QC, 18% overall this season between the 2 levels of pitching he faced. So when he gets his pitch, he hammers it. Also, 34% of his hits were for extra bases.
• .345 Secondary average verses a .253 batting average.
• Strong throwing arm and good range.

ok, sorry again for being redundant. He has power and speed, you get it by now.

Here’s his weaknesses:

• .31 BB/K ratio
• 30% of his at bats he strikes out.
• Walk rate still isn’t at that 10% benchmark you’d like to see.
• Despite having good range and a strong arm, way too many errors. I’ve read he’s sort of like Juan Encarnacion in that regard. One minute he’ll do something spectacular, the other minute something boneheaded.
• Can be too pull happy

Rob Deer with speed may not be that far off from a comp. Greene is blessed with a lot of athletic ability, but theres a disconnect somewhere mentally that is keeping him from fully tapping into it, evidenced by his lack of plate discipline and defensive errors. I’ve heard on a couple of occasions now that Greene’s turnaround wasn’t due to any real adjustments, he just was seeing more fastballs, as breaking pitches can give him fits. Not good considering he’s ticketed for AA. He needs to smooth out his game to reach his potential as a solid regular.

I’ve seen Greene in person, at the time he was riding a hot streak and I had trouble believing he was the same guy who was struggling at Palm Beach. He went 2 for 4 that game with a home run, it was the day Mulder pitched in a rehab start. I was there to see Mulder more then anything else that day, but I remember thinking Greene’s swing looked pretty long and he struck out on a pitch that was pretty darn outside. I also remember he crushed his home run to deep left center and thinking “whoa, where did that come from?” Greene’s a pretty wiry guy, so his power was certainly a surprise.