Former Friends

The organization has had its share of AAA filler in recent years (a trend that seems to be slowly reversing itself). While these guys were never really considered big time prospects, it is easy to get attached to them because they come off as underdogs. So, while guys like John Gall never really “made it” with the Cardinals, I still have a fondness for them. After the jump I’m going to take a look at what a few of these guys are doing now and another “former friend” that doesn’t exactly fit into that category.

Walking the line

I wanted to check the theory on how indifferent the Cardinals have been towards walks when it comes to their early round draft picks, chiefly college pitchers. I find puzzling as to why the any team would take numerous chances with college players with wobbly control. If you’re gonna gamble on upside, you would think that would be on a few more high school pitchers, as presumably they are more impressionable and pliable. You’d also have to think it would be more challenging to attempt to correct the flaws of a more established college pitcher that’s already enjoyed a measure of success rather then an 17 or 18 year old kid. It seems like a method to stockpile the minors with future relievers, not starters. Anyway, here are the BB/9 numbers for players taken in Luhnow drafts. The #’s are their final college season. Yes, 2004 is included, although Luhnow wasn’t fully in charge of the draft at that time, his stamp is indelibly on it:

O the depths to which a first round draft pick can fall

Lambert was the PTBNL for Mike Maroth.  No great loss here as Lambert had made zero strides towards making himself a servicable pitcher of any kind.  Best of luck to the Tigers in trying to fix him.  The potential is there but I don’t think he’ll ever reach it.

[erik, chipping in his 2 rusty cents 2:00pm] Jumping Jiminy Jee ha! Maroth is probably toast. Then again, so is Lambert. No loss big loss here whatsoever.  Best of luck to Lambert, but I’m glad he’s kinda glad he’s gone. Mostly, I’m relieved it wasn’t someone of any real consequence.

Lambert to the bullpen

I somehow let a tidbit of juicy info slip past me. It seems Chris Lambert‘s promotion wasn’t much of a promotion at all, depending on your point of view. Lambert will pitch out of the bullpen for Memphis.

Lambert’s velocity has dropped from the low to mid nineties in college to 85-90 range. His control has been better this year as he’s been better at repeating his delivery, an issue that has plagued him throughout his pro career. He’s still shown a propensity for the long ball, allowing 5 homers in 25 innings. 3 of them came in one inning, back-to-back-to-back.

Putting him in the pen could good for his arm, as the grind of starting twice a week seems to be what’s sapped his velocity. If he can maintain decent control while regaining some of the velocity he lost, he may have a future yet, just not quite the future the Cardinal brass was hoping for when they drafted him.

knee jerk reaction

Sorry everyone if my post on Chris Lambert was so harsh.  A bad inning doesn’t make a pitcher a failure. A bad track record does. Lambert has not done anything to inspire confidence that he will ever live up to his #1 draft pick status. He hasn’t done anything to suggest that he will be a major leaguer, productive or otherwise.  It’s frustrating, but that’s the nature of the game. I seem to remember the Padres picked Matt Bush at the top of the draft and I’m sure that’s ticking off their fan-base more then Lambert is ticking off the Cardinal fan-base.

It’s frustrating because in hindsight there are scads of players that would’ve been a more worthy choice then Lambert, and the Cardinal 2004 draft overall looks like it will not provide one major league contributor other then maybe some middle relief.

Maybe Lambert will figure it out, maybe he’ll surprise me. But the odds are not in his favor.  Putting his face next to the definition of failure isn’t fair to him as a person, but I do find it fair to characterize the 2004 draft as such.

So if I offended anyone with my harshness, I apologize. Hopefully this will continue to be a place where you can get half-way intelligent baseball conversation.  Sorry for coming across like a jackass. So are we cool? Cool. 🙂

Ergh…Lambert

Failure
1. an act or instance of failing or proving unsuccessful; lack of success: His effort ended in failure. The campaign was a failure.
2. nonperformance of something due, required, or expected: a failure to do what one has promised; a failure to appear.
3. a subnormal quantity or quality; an insufficiency: the failure of crops.
4. deterioration or decay, esp. of vigor, strength, etc.: The failure of her health made retirement necessary.
5. a condition of being bankrupt by reason of insolvency.
6. a becoming insolvent or bankrupt: the failure of a bank.
7. a person or thing that proves unsuccessful: He is a failure in his career. The cake is a failure.
Synomyms: Bust, bungle, fiasco.

Chris Lambert did a great Bipolar Betty impersonation today on the mound for the S-Cards, giving up back to back to back home runs. He gave up a total of 4 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings, striking out 1 and walking 1.

DanUp has a pretty good write up on the 2004 draft that was headed by Lambert.

10 Things to Watch in 2007

As the new season draws ever so close, here’s 10 things I’ll be watching closely in the 2007 season:

1. How quickly can Colby adjust to AA? He was slow to get going both at the low and high A level last season. If he has a bad April I won’t worry too much, if he’s looking over matched after that I might start to worry a little.

2. Jaime Garcia’s strikeout rate. Garcia struck out a batter per inning for the Quad Cities, but only about 6 per 9 innings at Palm Beach. Reports were he was becoming too curve happy. Just reading Goold’s “Vuch Report”, early word is Garcia’s velocity is up a little this spring and he’s been getting lots of strikeouts in the exhibition games. Good news.

3. Chris Perez’s rapid ascension. He already pitched a nice inning this past Sunday, facing big leaguers Brian Roberts, Freddy Bynum and Melvin Mora, setting them down in order. He could now break camp at AA, with Sillman being his set up man. Watch his platoon split.

4. Speaking of platoon splits, watch Ottavino’s. 1.052 OPS against lefties at QC last season.

5. Bryan Anderson and “catcher fatigue syndrome” as John Sickels calls it. It can happen to any catcher, no matter how good he is. Just ask Jarrod Saltala…what’s his name.

6. Jon Jay. Lower minors all star or pro hitter? AA separates the men from the boys, and scouts and stat heads alike have their doubts about Jay despite his .342 average last season for QC.

7. Daryl Jones’s growth. For 2 seasons we’ve heard about his toolsiness, but now it’s time to see a little better results. He had a nice go at the Appy and all, I’m hungry for more.

8. Lambert. C’mon kid, no one likes to be remembered as a bust.

9. Tommy Pham. With a half decent season, he could surpass Jones’s prospect status as the resident “super tool-sy guy”. If he really hits, he could be a top 5er Cardinal in next years edition of the Baseball America Handbook. I won’t get too ahead of myself, just sayin’ is all.

10. Mark McCormick’s health. Can he come back from shoulder surgery and still throw in the high nineties?

Hey, rook!: Guys I wouldn’t be shocked to see get some MLB service time this season are Amaury “Bill Brasky” Cazana, Dennis Dove, Chris Perez and Brendan Ryan. Oh, and Rick Ankiel.

Terry Evans Award: Kooky prediction- Mike Ferris will wake up one day, find religion, learn to hit and get traded for a struggling pitcher who goes on to be a post season hero.

Hey, who’s that guy?: Jason Motte, ex-Yadier Molina-ish catcher (all arm/defense, no hit) now turned fireball reliever. He can hit 95 and has a surprising feel for his slider. Another who I guess has already surprised already, and could continue to do so: Nathan Southard.

Trade bait: Mark Hamilton. He’s not moving to the OF. As Gump has said, “that’s all I got to say about that.”

Colby and Co. go to camp

Per today’s P-D

Blake Hawksworth, one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, leads the group and is the one not from the 2004 draft. He was the organization’s pitcher of the year in 2006 and is the closest of the group to the majors. He’ll be joined in Jupiter by the top two closers from the system, right handers Mark Worrell, a former organizational pitcher of the year, and Mike Sillman. First-round pick Chris Lambert and his Class AA teammate from ’06, Mike Parisi, complete the newcomers.

La Russa said camp will be geared to the “least-experienced player, the least-experienced pitcher” and that every player will “start the drills like Colby Rasmus — at zero.”

The plan is to get the younger players, like Rasmus and Hawksworth, time in the exhibition games. La Russa agreed that big-league spring training can be like a September call up in the similar bounce it gives a young player.

“The benefit for a young kid like Rasmus and the others is they get to be in that clubhouse and we get to see their willingness to compete,” La Russa said. “They can benefit from the example and from the opportunity that’s there. The first 10 days, two weeks will be the same for everybody. From there, what they can earn depends on how they perform. Some can get a longer look-see.”

Also in notably in camp is Bryan Anderson for the 2nd spring in a row, Brendan Ryan as well as Chris Narveson and Troy Cate who are considered long shots for a rotation spot. It’s really refreshing to see many more homegrown players in camp for a change. Hopefully Lambert and Carpenter can rub shoulders a bit, as they have something in common as they are both are New Hampshire-ites (Lambert was born in California, but grew up there). And when you look at each player’s stats when they were in AA, they are similar-

Carp-Age 20-21 235.2 IP 16 HR 122 BB 203 K 3.94 DIPS
Lambert-Age 22-23 205.2 IP 30 HR 111 BB 182 K 4.75 DIPS

Carpenter and Lambert were both first round picks and were considered to be raw talents. They both have had their struggles with command early in their careers. The big difference in the 2 pitching lines is Lambert’s ghastly home run rate. Not to say Lambert will turn into Carp, Carpenter was long regarded as having some pretty dominant stuff and Lambert has left some scouts underwhelmed. Word is Lambert has trouble staying consistent with his mechanics, thus ballooning his walk rate. Last spring Carpenter took Wainwright as his ‘padawan-learner’ and it payed dividends. If anyone could benefit from Carpenter, it would certainly be Lambert.

Prospects Ranked by Projected VORP

1.  Jon Jay
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Cody Haerther
5. Tyler Greene
6. Chris Narveson
7. Nick Stavinoha
8. Chris Perez

These are not necessarily how these prospects would rank in the organization, this is just how PECOTA judges their recent work to project how well the player would fare in the majors.

• Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus were separated by only one tenth of a point, though I’m sure we all agree that Rasmus has the higher ceiling. It’s pretty exciting that projects so well already. One of Rasmus’s top comps is the oft-rumored to be traded Lastings Milledge of the Mets’ system. Jay’s projected VORP was higher than any left fielder without major league experience. PECOTA thinks he could nearly hit .300 in the majors next year.
• Jaime Garcia’s projected VORP is higher then any other Cardinal starter not named Carpenter, Wainwright and Reyes (and Jeff Weaver, should he resign.) PECOTA believes Garcia would be a more valuable starter then Mark Mulder and Kip Wells by a full win above replacement.
• Cody Haerther’s VORP is about the same as Juan Encarnacion’s and higher then Preston Wilson’s.
• Despite his hacky-ness, Tyler Greene isn’t a full win less then Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein. That bodes well for his future, however one of his top comps was John Nelson, the soon to be 28 year old and two true outcome SS for Memphis, also a recent September call up.
• The rest: Narveson, Stavinoha and Perez are closer to replacement level.  Chris Perez is on the fast track and should be promoted aggressively. As a reliever, he doesn’t need to learn 2 or 3 new pitches like a starter, he just needs to get a little more experience. I expect Stavinoha to improve after being slowed by an ankle injury last season. Narveson is probably as big league ready as he’ll ever be. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’ll be exposed to waivers. Considering he’s a long shot to make the rotation and  the Nats are desperate for pitching, why not flip Narvie for Church straight up? It’s not like they are going to suddenly like Ryan Church. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

Also of note- Tagg Bozied, who was signed as a minor league free agent and is the owner of the best name ever is very close to Haerther’s projected VORP. Top prospects Bryan Anderson and Daryl Jones were forecasted way below replacement level, they are still pretty far from reaching their ceilings. Hawksworth, Lambert, Ottavino and McCormick were all forecasted to be below replacement level. Ex-Cardinal prospect Daric Barton’s projection wasn’t all that hot. I can’t say the same for Dan Haren.

ZiP-id-ee-doo-dah

Even with new baby born, suprisingly I find myself unable to sleep tonight, so I may as well blog.  Dan Szymborski has his latest ZiPS projections out for the Cardinals, I found some of it interesting as far as some of the minor leaguers go.

• The Cardinals are looking for another outfielder, but they may already have one with Ryan Ludwick. He projects a .247/.316/.459 batting line, not great, but his presence doesn’t make resigning Preston Wilson seem like a wise move.
• Stavinoha projects to be every bit as ‘valuable’ as Preston Wilson. Can’t wait to see what he does this year when healthy.
• Andy Cavazos’s projected ERA is 4.28, a hair under Russ Springer’s projection. That bullpen is getting pretty crowded.
• Troy Cate projects to be a run better then Tyler Johnson and every bit as good as the recently re-upped Randy Flores. He’s doing a great job for Matzaltan in the Mexican Winter League right now as a starter, it’ll be interesting to see what role the Cardinals put him in this spring.
• Blake Hawksworth deserves a good look this spring, though I think he could benefit for some more seasoning in AAA. ZiPS has him at a 4.81 ERA over 29 starts, pretty close to Mulder’s projection, only of course more starts. It’s kinda funny, it took Hawksworth almost 2 seasons to recover from shoulder surgery and it’s about halfway safe to say he’s come fully back. He’s lost some of the zip on his fastball, but the rest of the goods remain. The Cardinals are gambling Mulder will make a quicker recovery then Hawksworth. That’s understandable, Mulder’s shoulder injury wasn’t as bad, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Hawksworth outpitches Mulder over the next 2 seasons.
• Somewhat to my suprise, Chris Narveson and Dennis Dove don’t really project all that well, both ERA’s well over 5.
• Not to my suprise, Stu Pomeranz, Eric Haberer and Chris Lambert project to be decroded pieces of crap. (Forgive the Nap Dynamite ref)

Another look at batted balls: Pitchers

Here’s more batted ball data coming your way, this time we’ll look at the pitchers and see what we can learn. (The numbers in the middle with the L’s in front are league average). –

You may notice the absence of relief pitchers, sorry about that, perhaps another post. Just looking at the data, here’s a few things that stick out to me:

• Jaime Garcia is a pretty interesting prospect. Not only has the 20 year old lefty demonstrated good command by posting a nifty 3.85 K/BB ratio between Quad Cities and Palm Beach, but that’s a rather extreme ground ball rate. And did I mention he’s 20? And a lefty? I did? Oh, sorry. My only worry with him is his drop in strikeouts upon his call up to A+, but word is he wasn’t mixing up his pitches, either getting too fastball happy or too curve happy.
• Nick Webber is about as an extreme groundballer as you can be, but unlike Garcia, he has no out pitch. His 65:63 strikeout to walk ratio is pretty puke-a-fying. Someone, please, teach this guy how to throw a changeup, or a curve, or an eephus, or something!
• Some experts say that inducing infield flies for pitchers can be a skill. It bears watching in the case of Blake King. King also has a pretty low ground ball rate. He hasn’t had problems with the big flies yet, but it could hurt him down the road. Or as in the case of Anthony Reyes, it could draw some unnecessary skepticism from his future coaches.
•  The Texas League does bad things to fly balls, at least to our guys. Perhaps some bad luck can be chalked up to Lambert’s and Haberer’s poor showings in AA this past season. Or they were just throwing meatballs, you decide. Certainly both could stand to cut down the free passes. Lambert, the Cards’ #1 pick in ’04, has an 5.75 ERA in 41 starts at the AA level. Suffice to say he’s been a disappointment so far.
• Ottavino, who was accustomed to throwing the 4 seamer in college, has taken pretty well to throwing the sinker so far, demonstrated by his 54% ground ball ratio. I think he’ll harness his command as he gets more comfortable with throwing the 2 seamer. It’s his ability to get lefties out that’s much more of a worry to me now. (WHIP 2.03, .892 OPS against southpaws, .83 WHIP, .385 OPS verses righties. It’s gotta have something to do with his delivery, but that’s another post for another day.)
• Boggs’ line drive % was pretty yeasty, line drive rates can vary year to year with pitchers. There may be some bad luck to his 9.5 hits per 9 rate last season.  Not that 9.5 hits per 9 in necessarily awful. Maybe he’s just hittable. On the contrast, an 8% line drive percentage could suggest that hitters don’t make good contact against Mark McCormick, if they make contact at all.

Anyway, just a few thoughts. Batted balls and their relationship with pitchers can be interesting, but it also can be overblown. Obviously, things like dominance and command are far more important gauges in projecting a pitcher’s future success, but looking at the numbers is thought-provoking, and in the case of Jaime Garcia, it adds some more luster to his prospect status.