Daily Farm Report 6/10/08

Beware! Long-winded DFR tonight, with a lot of ground to cover.

FR May Position Player and Pitcher of the Month

I can’t believe June is already here. That means it’s time to look back at May and who turned in great performances that month. Our panel has spoken, and there’s no disputing who belongs at the top this month.

Memphis Redbirds Game 5/18

Mitchell Boggs and Joe Mather starred in this 1-0 game where the Redbirds eeked out a win in the 9th. I wanted to take a look at Boggs start as well as a few other players. Here’s what I saw.

Pitching Health, Part 2: 2008 Workload

There are a multitude of reasons why pitching prospects don’t pan out.  I believe that, after talent, the biggest reason is health.  Every organization has had its share of pitching prospects that have flamed out, or at least have had their career temporarily derailed, due to injury and the Cardinals are no exception. 

There is no absolute connection between workload and injury – certain “rubber armed” pitchers seem to be able to throw endlessly without injury (Livan Hernandez comes to mind), but there is enough of a connection that teams are paying much closer attention to pitch counts than they used to, especially with younger pitchers.  The depth of the Cardinals system, at least according to most prospect lists, lies in our pitching prospects.  The question then, is what has their workload been thus far, and what would be ideal for 2008?  I’m going to take a look at five of the Cardinals top starting pitching prospects after the jump.

Mechanically inclined

Goold had some pretty interesting stuff to report out of camp the other day. Several of the Cards pitching prospects are at camp early, watching video, doing long toss and working with the new roving pitching instructor Brent Strom. Those pitchers are Garcia, Ottavino, Perez, Boggs, Mortensen and Walters- which also says something about their prospect status. One of the things that really caught my attention the work being done by Michael Witte, an on-staff consultant. Witte is not an ex-player, he’s just a fan. Doing a little googling, I found this article about him in the New Yorker. Witte is an illustrator by profession. Bored by his normal routine, he started going through old videos of games that featured Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale, and Tom Seaver and felt he found common denominator in their mechanics and what helped them become so successful. He started sending his findings to the Cardinals, and eventually they came around on some of his theories. Sounds like our own version of Chris O’Leary or Carlos Gomez.

While I believe a good pitching coach worth his weight in salt ought to be able to find mechanical flaws in pitchers, I’m intrigued by the possibilities of utilizing video and finding what durable pitchers like Gibson and Seaver did to be successful and not fall apart while doing it. If many of our modern day pitching coaches already understood it, we wouldn’t see so many promising young players have their careers shipwrecked by injury. I’m glad the Cards have an open mind to this sort of stuff. And I’m liking what I hear about Strom’s desire to not make everyone cookie cutter. Adam Ottavino’s remarks show he’s pretty enthused. Maybe I’m reaching a bit here, but it sounds like they are willing to allow him to be himself instead of force-feeding him sinkerballism. With the changes in coaching staff and the new emphasis on “classic mechanics”, could it be the Cardinals are changing in philosophies? Just musing here…

…after typing that last sentence or two, I did a little more googling, this time on Strom. He is an ex-MLB pitcher, but what intrigued me was his work at Ron Wolforth’s Baseball Ranch. I actually heard an interview by Will Carroll with Wolforth on BP’s podcast a week or so ago; it was interesting stuff. Looking at their rather ugly website, they have some pretty out of the ordinary ideas. They emphasize going retro. In their own words they teach a pitching style that is “up-tempo, dynamic, athletic, free, non-choreographed, and individually unique movements of Hall of Fame pitchers such as Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, Dizzy Dean, and Fergie Jenkins.” They have an accent on long-tossing to build arm strength and preach a paradigm shift in coaching, stressing freedom and allowing pitchers to use their athleticism rather then trying to be robots. There are certain elements they are looking for, and they are all for making some adjustments, but they aren’t in the cloning business.

I don’t know about you, but I’m digging this. While Koufax and Dean aren’t the poster boys of mechanical success given their relatively short careers, I like the freedom they are giving their pitchers and am excited for Ottavino in particular. We may witness some breakouts this season.

[update: DG has even more info on the relationship of Strom and Witte at his blog.]

Prospect Q + A w/Keith Law

Keith Law was kind enough to do a little email Q+A with the me. As many of you I’m sure already know, Keith is the lead baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. of ESPN.com. Before joining ESPN, he spent 4½ years with the Blue Jays as a Special Assistant to the GM, and he also was previously a writer for Baseball Prospectus. He’s a Harvard grad, so naturally he intimidates the crap out of me. I kid, I kid. Thanks again to Keith for taking his time to share his perspective on the Cardinals.

Saturday AM bits and pieces

Per Bernie Miklasz, Joe Mather has been added to the 40 man roster. Congrats to Joe.

Mitch Boggs participated in the AFL Rising Stars Showcase game last night. The game is like the AFL All Star game, but rather then players being on teams for their performance, they are put on the team based more on their prospect status. I would assume the coaches and managers make that judgment of who makes the squads. Boggs came in in the 3rd inning for the East team. He induced a grounder to 2nd off the bat of Mike Costanzo. He allowed back to back line drive singles against Trevor Crowe and Dexter Fowler, then hit Matt Antonelli with a pitch. He then induced a ground ball to get a double play facing German Duran to get out of the inning unscathed. Here’s the box score.

Baseball America has it’s NL draft report cards up. (Subscription required) The highlights are:

• They like Beau Riportella‘s speed and overall athleticism.
• Steve Hill and Daniel Descalso are the “best pure hitters” of the draft. It’s notable to me that they don’t see Kozma as the best hitter the Cardinals took in the draft.
• They like Clayton Mortensen‘s sinker quite a bit, but for pure heat they like Adam Reifer.
• Brett Zawacki is their favorite late round pick out of a “deep group of sleepers”.

Later on in a chat, there was a question as what they saw for this draft in the future. Callis said he saw Todd setting up, Mortensen near the front of the rotation and Kozma starting at SS.

Sounds about right to me, but I’d bet there could be a few of the sleepers in the mix who could surprise. I like hearing Mort could be “near the front” of the rotation, versus at the back of it. I really am liking him quite a bit, that’s about where I see him too.

Lastly, I’m sure most of you have seen that it’s sounding more and more that the Cardinals are serious Antonetti, and Antonetti is serious about the Cardinals.  I mean, the guy is looking at neighborhoods with his wife serious. He totally fits with Luhnow, La Russa is saying the right things about working with a young GM and a young ball club. This is just all too right. I’m really, really, really happy about this.

Flush Pockets!

Derrick Goold has a very good interview with Mitch Boggs up at Birdland. Check it out.

Here’s a snippet–

DG: Are you aware that you haven’t missed a start as a pro?

MB: It’s something that I take great pride in. I think it has to do with how you prepare yourself in the offseason and the work you get in between every start. You pitch every five days, but you put in the work on the days inbetween. Some times it’s overlooked. Because it’s not the flashiest of things — working between starts, doing the running, getting the side sessions in. I’ve also been lucky enough with my health. I haven’t had a problem.

And there’s this not so tasty tidbit-

DG: Whose the last one to the car? (ed. note-he’s rooming with Mark Hamilton and Jason Motte)

MB: Hamilton. He’s always cranking out some breakfast on the way out the door. We have to drag him to the car with his Hot Pockets.

Hot Pockets?!?! For Breakfast? No wonder he’s the last man to the car. “Good morning! You’re about to call in sick.”

In honor of Mark Hamilton, enjoy Gaffigan’s Hot Pockets bit.

-Elsewhere, Dustin has a preview for Team USA. They will play the Peoria Javelinas today at 1:25.

Prospect Profile: Mitch Boggs

Mitch Boggs may not have the upper nineties fastball or sharp slider that Adam Ottavino has. He does not have the heavy sinker or 12-6 dropper of Jaime Garcia. He doesn’t have the pinpoint control of Tyler Herron or P.J. Walters. He may not garner the same type of attention that other Cardinal pitching prospects do, but there is still plenty to like.

Checking in with BA’s Top 30 Cardinal Prospects: 11-19

Ok, time to move on to part two of the series. In case you missed it, here’s part one. Before the season started, Baseball America released their handbook in their usual format. If you’ve been living on Mars, they go through all 30 teams listing their top 30 prospects for each team. And away we go…

19. Tyler Johnson- What’s more wrong with this picture? The fact that the #19 rated Cardinal prospect is a LOOGy or the fact that he had already played in 56 games last season? I’m gonna take a pass on this one, y’all know TyJo by now.

18. Tyler Herron- As a first round supplemental pick out of high school in 2005, Herron bombed in his debut. He allowed 11 homers in 50 innings and put up an ugly 5.62 ERA. Last year he made some gains with posting a 4.13 at the rookie level, his strikeout rate dropped rather starkly. This season has been another story. At 20 years old it’s starting to come together, as he’s struck out 59 while walking 12, and has allowed just 1 homer in 62 IP. And he has a 57% ground ball rate. He has the potential to throw 3 plus pitches with his sinker/change/curve combo and at his young age he has lots of room for growth.

17. Tyler Greene- Yep, he’s still striking out in 1/4 of his plate appearances, but he’s still showing that tantalizing power/speed combo. 50% of his hits have gone for extra bases and he’s stolen 9 bases. Most strikingly he’s leading the Texas League in line drive % with 25%. When he makes contact, good things happen. I’d like see him improve his BB/K ratio before I can take him too seriously, but I can’t say I dislike everything I’m seeing here.

16. Cody Haerther– Had problems with his wrist, came back in May and played 10 games, then broke his hamate bone. Tough luck.

15. Chris Narveson- Well, heck. Did he hurt his oblique or was it the shoulder? I guess it was both. The Memphis Commercial-Appeal recently reported that he aggravated the oblique again, it’s uncertain when he’ll get start pitching again. Bad timing, a spot in the big league rotation is wide open right now.

14. Chris Lambert- Do I have to talk about this? He’s done, dead, toast, fuggahtabowdit. For Memphis, he has a 7.20 ERA out of the bullpen with 19 K’s to 9 walks in 20 innings. Reports earlier this year was his velocity was way down, the 85-90 range and thus the move to the bullpen. That 2004 draft was one for the ages.

13. Mark Hamilton- His stock is up, hitting .300/.352/.540 in a tough park. His 13 homers are good for 3rd in the FSL and 15.7% of the balls he has hit have cleared the fence, which leads the league out of all qualified batters. His April was miserable and has since started wearing glasses. 4 eyes are better then 2 sometimes. With no continuity at first base in Springfield (Mather plays RF frequently) and Brandon Buckman continuing to rake for the MWL, I have to think a promotion could be forthcoming.

12. Brendan Ryan- See lboros’s in depth report on Ryan. He’s hitting just .255/.306/.340. It sounds like we’ll be getting more of a look at him soon with Eckstein’s back issues. Is he a suitable replacement for Eckstein? He’ll have to start to hit more consistently to make it happen. If not, then could at least replace Aaron Miles.

11. Mitchell Boggs- On the surface, his 4.22 ERA seems to be acceptable enough. Below the surface, his 1.44 K/BB ratio leaves something to be desired. He’s done an acceptable job of keeping the ball in the park considering his league and park and on the ground. While I’m listening to tonight’s latest embarrassing disaster, maybe they should consider him for a spot start.

Prospect Profile: Mitch Boggs

Boggs was the anchor of the Palm Beach rotation this season, going 10-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 27 starts, and was 2nd in the Florida State League in strikeouts. For those of you who don’t know very much about Mitchell Boggs, he’s a right handed pitcher/QB who wavered between his desire for football and baseball. He accepted a baseball scholarship to Georgia, but transfered to Tennessee-Chattanooga his sophomore year. As a backup quarterback, he saw about as much action as Jim Sorgi, so he decided to go back to Georgia to play baseball. He had 2 relatively uninspiring seasons on a lackluster team, pitching mostly in relief. He did finish the ’05 season as the team’s closer and impressed the Cardinals with a low to mid-nineties sinking fastball, enough so that he was selected in the 5th round of the 2005 draft. After being drafted, Boggs started 14 games for New Jersey and put up a 3.89 ERA. He struck out 61 in 72 innings, walking 24 and allowing 77 hits. His performance warranted a start at high class A Palm Beach.

His season was inconsistent, he had an impressive June and August and a dismal May. One game in June he took a no hitter into the 9th, and finished with a one hit shutout. He finished 5th in the league in ERA out of all qualifying pitchers (3.41), 4th in FIP (3.31), 4th in K/9 (7.82) and had the 2nd highest BABIP in the league (an ungodly .340). The extremely high BABIP comes from a few factors, one Boggs has trouble changing speeds on his pitches, 2 outside of 41 games of Terry Evans in right field, the rest of the defense for Palm Beach was downright woeful.

Strengths: Boggs gets good life on his fastball, which he can cut and sink. He works in the high-eighties to low-nineties, but can dial it up to 94 at times. His 1.7:1 GB/FB rate and .44 HR/9 rate evidences the good sink he can get. His slider is average, but gets a decent break and serves as a strikeout pitch. He made a successful jump from the bullpen to starting and has embraced the pitch to contact philosophy the Cardinals preach. He has decent control, a strong frame and has clean mechanics.

Weaknesses: As I mentioned, has trouble changing speeds which makes him more hittable. Averaged around 5 1/2 innings per start, not terrible for an A ball pitcher but you’d like to see him go deeper into games. Decent K rate will likely not hold as he climbs up the rungs of the system.

Future: The Cardinals love sinker-ballers, and Boggs has one of the heavier pitches in the system. He profiles as the back of the rotation starter, a guy with moderate strikeout ability with decent command who will let his defense do the work. He could move back to the pen and be an interesting middle reliever, but the Cards are content with him being a starter. Developing an off speed pitch would greatly increase his value. His hit rate is troubling, and he’ll be moving to much more unfriendly quarters at Hammons Field.

Some (free) Q & A from the Birdhouse w/club officials

Found these juicy scoops at the Scout.com message boards. It’s an interview with John Mozeliak and Co. It’s free, there’s some very interesting info there regarding the big club too, so check it out.  Here’s some of the minors’ info:

Q: How is the development schedule of Colby Rasmus coming?
A: He’s a 5-tool player that is on a fast track. One of the reasons we signed Edmonds to a two-year extension is because we think Colby could be ready by 09. Many minor leaguers go backward a little or plateau for awhile when they are promoted as they adjust. Every time we have promoted Colby, after a week or so he adjusted and has been able to excel at the higher level right away.

Colby will be 22 in ’09, and if he has a good spring it he could start at AA this season. He’s added 20 pounds this winter.

Q: Are there any minor league players who could break through and play for the big club at any time this year?
A: The two players that are closest are Troy Cate and Andy Cavazos. Cate has done an extraordinary job opening our eyes and we are looking at him as both a starter and reliever. Cavazos is a big strong kid who is close to being ready for the major league bullpen. We are very also very pleased about the Cabrera signing – he can do a lot of things that give us flexibility. He has been in Japan for the past 2 years and is anxious to re-establish himself in the MLB.

I’m officially jumping on the Troy Cate Bandwagon. Cate is dominating the Mexican Winter League right now. The lefty is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA, striking out 24 and walking 9 in just under 30 innings. He’s being used primarily as a starter there, verses his normal relief role. His team, Venados de Mazaltan, is currently in the playoffs. He pitched 7 scoreless innings in his one postseason start.  Nice to see Cavazos get some recognition as well, here’s hoping he has a good spring. I didn’t forget to mention the Cabrera signing, I just don’t think he’ll make a difference. He’s this year’s Timo Perez.

Q: Are there any specific players on a fast track we should be watching this year?
A: Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, and Jon Jay. Boggs is very solid. Garcia has been a real delight. He was overweight and out of shape when we drafted him. Went to the Dominican League, got into a conditioning program, and looks great now. Fastball is in the 92-93 range and he has an outstanding breaking pitch. He is the real deal. Jon Jay is an outstanding prospect. We may do the same thing with Jay that we did with Stavinoha – jump him right to Springfield this year.

I’ve felt Boggs has been overlooked by a lot of people, but he hasn’t been overlooked by the higher ups. Not suprised to see Jay is making the jump to AA, and calling him outstanding is certainly a nice compliment. I’m really beginning to like Jay more and more.

Q: Can you rate our 3 best closing prospects – Worrell, Sillman, and Perez?
A: Worrell has a very unorthodox, goofy delivery. We don’t know whether it will relate to success at the major league level. Sillman is kind of the same way with an unorthodox sidearm delivery. Both of them might make it some day, but probably not as closers. Perez is a different story. He has electric stuff and hits 95. Big, strong kid. He should come through the system very fast. He could be 2 years away at the inside. 3 years is a good bet.

Well, that was candid on Worrell. I’m a lot more sold on Sillman, though I think he’s middle of the bullpen, situational type guy. We’ll have to see how well he fairs once out of the pitchers paradise that is Roger Dean. A lot of people have been putting Perez in the ’07 bullpen, but it looks like the Cardinals will give him more seasoning then that.

That’s all I’ll post, go and check it out for yourself for more interesting tidbits.