Pitching Health, Part 2: 2008 Workload

There are a multitude of reasons why pitching prospects don’t pan out.  I believe that, after talent, the biggest reason is health.  Every organization has had its share of pitching prospects that have flamed out, or at least have had their career temporarily derailed, due to injury and the Cardinals are no exception. 

There is no absolute connection between workload and injury – certain “rubber armed” pitchers seem to be able to throw endlessly without injury (Livan Hernandez comes to mind), but there is enough of a connection that teams are paying much closer attention to pitch counts than they used to, especially with younger pitchers.  The depth of the Cardinals system, at least according to most prospect lists, lies in our pitching prospects.  The question then, is what has their workload been thus far, and what would be ideal for 2008?  I’m going to take a look at five of the Cardinals top starting pitching prospects after the jump.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Herron

Tyler Herron started live up to his billing this past season and vaulted his way up the prospect rankings.

Prospect Q + A w/Keith Law

Keith Law was kind enough to do a little email Q+A with the me. As many of you I’m sure already know, Keith is the lead baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. of ESPN.com. Before joining ESPN, he spent 4½ years with the Blue Jays as a Special Assistant to the GM, and he also was previously a writer for Baseball Prospectus. He’s a Harvard grad, so naturally he intimidates the crap out of me. I kid, I kid. Thanks again to Keith for taking his time to share his perspective on the Cardinals.

A peak at peak translations part 4: pitchers

As promised, we will now take a look at Clay Davenport’s Peak Translations for pitchers. This gets into a little more precarious ground, as pitcher projections are much hazier then projecting hitters, as pitchers can be pretty volatile lot.

Midwest League Top 20

Baseball America continues pumping out the scouting reports. The Midwest League is home to the Swing of Quad Cities in low-Class A. They pay in a pitchers park and last year featured a number of the Cardinals top prospects including Rasmus and Anderson. The Swing only captured a single spot on the MWL top 20 list this season with Tyler Herron coming in at #11. Herron obviously had a breakout season posting his highest K rate coupled with an exceptional BB rate and groundball tendencies (that’s kind of the complete package, no?).

Baseball America considered him the best prospect on a “deep Quad Cities staff”. I put that in quotes because I’m not particularly impressed with the QC staff this year. BA did like Herron over Kenny Maiques, PJ Walters and Brad Furnish. I’m a Kenny Maiques fan in terms of his pure stuff but I’ll be interested to see how he does when he advances next season.

Back to Herron. Utilizing a fastball, change-up and curveball that all project as “average or better”, Herron “maintained low-90s velocity” througout the season. Scouts were split on his fastball and whether it was too straight or had decent movement. There’s still some projectability in Herron, who at age 20, could still “add more strength to his frame”. Also, something that I haven’t noticed before in very many scouting reports is the note that Herron maintains his stuff even from the stretch using a “quick slide step”.

Jim Callis had a chat about the list — here are his comments:

Who’s #2? Herron or Ottavino?

Assuming Jaime Garcia is healthy, I think most would peg him as the #1 pitching prospect in the system. But who would you say is #2?

Thoughts on Tyler Herron

Has Tyler Herron become the Cardinals #1 pitching prospect? Granted, there’s Jaime Garcia in AA doing some pretty nice things at the same age as Herron, but check this out-

For the Swing last season, Jaime Garcia put up this line-

77.2 IP, BB/PA 5.7%, K/PA 25.2%, GB% 65%, HR/Air 1% FIP 2.20

And for the Swing this season, Tyler Herron has put up these #’s.

86.1 IP, BB/PA 4.2%, K/PA 25.1%, GB% 57%, HR/Air 1%, FIP 2.24.

Garcia earned himself a call up to Palm Beach and started his season in AA the following season. It may not be long before Herron earns himself a call up also, and I’d have to think he’s going to be at AA to open next season. I still like Garcia as the better prospect, but Herron’s season has been nothing short of outstanding. He’s come from being a C prospect with serious questions around him to a B, B+ prospect. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to him if and when he gets called up to the next level this season, but I think at this point he may have surpassed Ottavino and certainly Hawksworth in terms of prospect status. A couple years back, BA ranked Herron the #20 prospect in the Appy, having this to say about the young righty:

Balls fly out of Johnson City’s Howard Johnson Field, which Kidwell called the Coors Field of the Appy League. Herron was bitten by the longball in his debut, as his 11 homers allowed ranked second in the league. He also struggled with his command and tired late in the summer, so his numbers weren’t pretty.

But his upside is undeniable. Herron has a projectable 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame and already pitches at 87-91 mph with his fastball. He also shows the making of a plus curveball and has an advanced feel for his changeup.

Glad to see him start to turn that upside into game.

7/3/07 Daily Prospect Report

Per Matthew Leach:

The Cardinals named Tyler Herron their Minor League Pitcher of the Month for June, and Allen Craig was the Player of the Month. Herron went 5-0 with a save, a 2.27 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings at Class A Quad Cities. Craig hit .337 with seven home runs, 19 runs and 24 RBIs in June for Class A Palm Beach. Herron was also named the Midwest League’s Pitcher of the Week for June 25-July 1.

Congrats to Herron and Craig.

Evan Fisk (aka effin fisk, frequent poster at VEB) had a fun little interview with Rasmus. Find all about the Ken Griffey Jr./Colby Rasmus (or should I call him “Razzle”? That’s a terrible nickname, we have to think of something better then that) connection.

BA reports that right-handed reliever Adam Reifer of UC Riverside has signed. Reifer was throwing 92-93 while touching 97 before having surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow, a la Carp and was projected to be a possible first round pick in next year’s draft. He also throws a curve, slider and a change which could make him a starting candidate. He also has experienced shoulder issues causing his stock to slip, and that’s why we haven’t seen his name in any boxscores.

And onto today’s games:

Checking in with BA’s Top 30 Cardinal Prospects: 11-19

Ok, time to move on to part two of the series. In case you missed it, here’s part one. Before the season started, Baseball America released their handbook in their usual format. If you’ve been living on Mars, they go through all 30 teams listing their top 30 prospects for each team. And away we go…

19. Tyler Johnson- What’s more wrong with this picture? The fact that the #19 rated Cardinal prospect is a LOOGy or the fact that he had already played in 56 games last season? I’m gonna take a pass on this one, y’all know TyJo by now.

18. Tyler Herron- As a first round supplemental pick out of high school in 2005, Herron bombed in his debut. He allowed 11 homers in 50 innings and put up an ugly 5.62 ERA. Last year he made some gains with posting a 4.13 at the rookie level, his strikeout rate dropped rather starkly. This season has been another story. At 20 years old it’s starting to come together, as he’s struck out 59 while walking 12, and has allowed just 1 homer in 62 IP. And he has a 57% ground ball rate. He has the potential to throw 3 plus pitches with his sinker/change/curve combo and at his young age he has lots of room for growth.

17. Tyler Greene- Yep, he’s still striking out in 1/4 of his plate appearances, but he’s still showing that tantalizing power/speed combo. 50% of his hits have gone for extra bases and he’s stolen 9 bases. Most strikingly he’s leading the Texas League in line drive % with 25%. When he makes contact, good things happen. I’d like see him improve his BB/K ratio before I can take him too seriously, but I can’t say I dislike everything I’m seeing here.

16. Cody Haerther– Had problems with his wrist, came back in May and played 10 games, then broke his hamate bone. Tough luck.

15. Chris Narveson- Well, heck. Did he hurt his oblique or was it the shoulder? I guess it was both. The Memphis Commercial-Appeal recently reported that he aggravated the oblique again, it’s uncertain when he’ll get start pitching again. Bad timing, a spot in the big league rotation is wide open right now.

14. Chris Lambert- Do I have to talk about this? He’s done, dead, toast, fuggahtabowdit. For Memphis, he has a 7.20 ERA out of the bullpen with 19 K’s to 9 walks in 20 innings. Reports earlier this year was his velocity was way down, the 85-90 range and thus the move to the bullpen. That 2004 draft was one for the ages.

13. Mark Hamilton- His stock is up, hitting .300/.352/.540 in a tough park. His 13 homers are good for 3rd in the FSL and 15.7% of the balls he has hit have cleared the fence, which leads the league out of all qualified batters. His April was miserable and has since started wearing glasses. 4 eyes are better then 2 sometimes. With no continuity at first base in Springfield (Mather plays RF frequently) and Brandon Buckman continuing to rake for the MWL, I have to think a promotion could be forthcoming.

12. Brendan Ryan- See lboros’s in depth report on Ryan. He’s hitting just .255/.306/.340. It sounds like we’ll be getting more of a look at him soon with Eckstein’s back issues. Is he a suitable replacement for Eckstein? He’ll have to start to hit more consistently to make it happen. If not, then could at least replace Aaron Miles.

11. Mitchell Boggs- On the surface, his 4.22 ERA seems to be acceptable enough. Below the surface, his 1.44 K/BB ratio leaves something to be desired. He’s done an acceptable job of keeping the ball in the park considering his league and park and on the ground. While I’m listening to tonight’s latest embarrassing disaster, maybe they should consider him for a spot start.

6/10/07 Daily Prospect Report

In case you’re not much of a weekend blog reader, here’s more obsessions over the draft regarding Kozma, the ground ball tendencies of the day one pitchers, and the players a look at some of the players selected on day 2. A veritable barrage of content. And yes, I’m warming up to some of the picks, sorta. You can voice your opinion regarding the draft on the side poll or click here.  AZ looks at which players could be promoted and which players need to stay put in AA.

Derrick Goold reports the team has already signed 6th rounder Oliver Marmol and is very close with signing supplemental 1st round pick Clayton Mortenson. As many as 16 of their picks are expected to report to Jupiter. [updated] Missed this earlier, but Saturday David Kopp didn’t help Clemson, who was eliminated in that game. His line-1.2 innings. 5 H, 5R, 3ER, 2BB, 0K. 

Memphis 15, Albuquerque 7

Football scores happen in Isotope Park.

• Rick Ankiel went 4 for 5 and hit his 15th homer of the season.
• Skip Schumaker went 4 for 6 with a couple of doubles.
• Brendan Ryan went 3 for 6 and was a homer shy of hitting for the cycle.
• John Rodriguez went 1 for 3 and drew a couple of walks.
• Starter Randy Keisler gave up 2 homers. He gave up 5 runs, 4 earned on 5 hits and a walk. He had 11 ground ball outs.
• Mark Worrell gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk, while striking out 2 in 2 innings pitched.

Springfield 4, Arkansas 3

• I’ll get to the fun stuff after I tell you Colby Rasmus went 0 for 4 with a walk. He’s hitting just .194 in his last 10 games. His averages are down across the board as of late.
• Sean Danielson was the hero of tonight’s game. He drove in 2 runs in the 9th to put the Cardinals ahead. He finished 2 for 5 for the game and is now hitting .346.
• Mike Ferris went 3 for 4.
• Bryan Anderson allowed his 8th passed ball of the season. He went 1 for 3 at the plate. He allowed a steal and also gunned down a would be stealer.
• Mitch Boggs went 7 strong, allowing 1 run on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 6.
• Matt Scherer was only able to record one out and was tabbed for 2 earned runs in the 8th.
• Jason Motte could not save the lead and the runs were attributed to Scherer, but Motte was credited for the win as worked 1.2 innings, striking out 3 while allowing a couple of walks and a couple of hits.

Palm Beach 4, Brevard County Manatees Sea Cows 7

• Adam Ottavino allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk, while striking out 4. His ground out to fly out ratio was 7 to 10 and he allowed a 2 run home run.
• They tied the game in the 9th in a crazy inning. Brandon Yarbrough walked, James Rapoport sac-bunted to move him over to 2nd. Shane Robinson reached on a fielding error by the Manatee 3rd baseman. Dan Nelson struck out looking. Finally, Allen Craig reached on an error by the other team’s RF to score Yarbrough and take the game to extras.
• Luke Gregerson then had a rare blow up. He only got one out and allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and walk.
• Kyle McClellan was a bright spot out of the bullpen, he struck out 2 in a hitless inning. The Florissant native is a bit old for A ball as he’ll be turning 23 this Tuesday, but he’s struck out 20 in 25 innings pitched, while walking just 1.
• At the plate, Ian Church went 2 for 5 with a double and 3 RBI. He was the only Cardinal player with multiple hits. Brewer pitching prospect Will Inman was pretty dominant. He struck out 7 in 5 innings while allowing just 1 hit and 3 walks.
• Shane Robinson, Dan Nelson and Allen Craig all drew a pair of walks.

I was planning on attending this game, as a matter of fact I headed out to the ball park with my wife and child, fully ready to take pictures, scribble out notes and enjoy a bratwurst. Well, there was no ballgame in Cedar Rapids today. The Kernels were playing at the Swing and somehow I thought that it was the other way around. So as you can imagine, I felt a bit like a horse’s behind. The Swing just were playing the Kernels here, but I had some other engagements and thought to myself I had all weekend. Silly me. Luckily for me, they televised the replay of the game on cable here, which made it a little easier for me get another look at the players. First the recap:

Quad Cities 2, Cedar Rapids 0

• Tyler Herron hogged up the innings today. He went 6 innings and only allowed 3 hits while striking out 3. He also got 8 ground ball outs.
• Brad Furnish struck out 4 in 3 innings while only allowing a hit.
• Daryl Jones went 3 for 4 with 2 stolen bases and scored a run.
• Brandon Buckman went 0 for 2 but drew 2 walks.
• Luke Gorsett went 2 for 4 with a double. He’s hitting .344 over his last 10 games.
• Chris Grossman and Will Sandoval drove in the two runs.

Now, my thoughts on the players:

First of all, I was real eager to see Tyler Herron and I wasn’t disappointed. He didn’t throw particularly hard, about 89-91 but he had good movement on his sinker which of course explains his 56% ground ball rate. He was able to locate his fastball on both sides of the plate. His curveball I would grade out as average to slightly above average. It would occasionally come out loopy and he didn’t always command it. When he did snap off a good one, it had a good 12-6 drop and had hitters whiffing. He also showed at times a 76 MPH change that I’d say was an above average offering. He did seem pretty slow to the plate.

The other starter was Brad Furnish, and he looked a lot better then I expected. I seem to remember reports of him throwing 88 or so last year. Maybe it was fatigue from throwing a lot of innings for TCU, because he was throwing a good bit harder then that, 91-93. He also threw a cut fastball that had a good bit of movement but he was having trouble locating it. He also flashed a pretty good curve ball that was in the low 80’s. He was a quick worker and had a real fast but fluid delivery.

I only caught the 4th through the 9th inning, so I didn’t get the greatest look at the hitters. I will say that Daryl Jones looked different. I’ve seen him play for the third time now, he just appeared to be more confident. He had a nice swing and laced a line drive. He also seems to be getting more acquainted with his speed, as he swiped 2 bags can fly as reported. Brandon Buckman is a tall guy, wiry guy. He reminded me a bit of Derrek Lee, not just for his size, but the way he was agile around the bag. Hitting wise, he’s a free swinger with a relatively quick trigger, but as you can see he drew a couple of walks so it’s not that he doesn’t have a decent batting eye. He was taking some pretty close pitches.

5/28/07 Daily Prospect Report

Memphis 11, Round Rock 6

Home run derby! There were 8 total home runs in the game, 5 from Redbirds. Rick Ankiel smacked his 10th and 11th HR. When it was all said and done, he went 3 for 4 with a walk and 5 total RBIs.
Nick Stavinoha hit a grand slam for his 7th HR.
John Nelson and Skip Schumaker both went deep.
On the negative, Mark Worrell gave up two homers over his two innings of work.

Springfield 5, San Antonio 4 (in 10 innings)

Colby Rasmus hit 2 solo homers, one in the 9th to send the game into extra innings. He went 2 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout.
Juan Lucena drove in the game winning run in the 10th, he went 2 for 5 for the night.
Joe Mather doubled and walked twice.
Eric Haberer allowed 3 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks. He only struck out 1 and got 9 outs on the ground.
Nick Webber allowed the go ahead run to San Antonio. Over 2 innings he allowed 2 hits and a walk, while striking out 2 and getting 4 ground outs.

Palm Beach was off today.

QC, 1 Beloit 0 (Game 1)

Brad Furnish, Kyle Mura and Kenny Maiques combined for a 4 hit shutout in a 7 inning make up game. Furnish struck out 5 while walking 1 over 4.1 innings pitched. He allowed 3 hits and lowered his ERA to 2.55.
Jared Schweitzer, Brandon Buckman and Luke Gorsett collected the only hits for the Swing. All reached on singles, Schweitzer had 2 hits.
James Rapoport struck out in all three of his ABs.

QC 0, Beloit 4 (Game 2)

In another 7 inning game, the Swing were 1 hit by the Twins’ Danny Vais and Robert Delaney.

Tyler Herron pitched 5 strong innings, not allowing a run on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 3. 10 of his outs came on the ground. After being selected in the supplemental first round of ’05 out of Wellington High, Herron’s numbers were nothing to write home about. He posted a 5.62 ERA in 05 for Johnson City, bloated by allowing 11 long balls in 50 innings. In 06 he repeated rookie ball, improved his control and did a better job keeping the ball in the yard, but his K/9 ratio fell from 8.88 to 6.98. This season he’s doing a much better job all around. He has a 4:1 K/BB ratio, and 57% of the batted balls against him are grounders. I’d say he’s starting to live up to his promise. He hales from West Palm Beach, it won’t be long before he gets to go pitch in front of his home crowd.