Colby and Perez to represent their country

Per D Goold, Chris Perez and Colby Rasmus have been removed from the Arizona Fall League rosters. They will still be playing baseball, however, as they’ve been selected to represent Team USA in the IBAF World Cup, which is an overture to the Olympic Games (I thought baseball was removed from the Olympics?)

The tourney is from Nov 6-18.

Taking the two’s place on the AFL roster is Mark Shorey and Kyle McClellan. Good for both of them, but I sort of would’ve preferred Jose Martinez get more of a look in the AFL and I’m surprised they picked Shorey for the AFL, who they moved up and down at their own leisure earlier this past season.

I also sort of wonder how stiff the competition will be in the IBAF. Maybe one of you could educate me on this, because it seems to me it would be more beneficial for Rasmus and Perez to play in the AFL, which has the cream of the prospect crop.

Hat tip,  Hugo

Daily Prospect Report 7/26/07

erik has a summary below of the early returns on the 2007 draft class.

Long intro tonight w/ a lot of news.  Catch it all after the jump.

What’s that smoke I smell?

I’m a tad worried. Why is that, you ask? lboros had an excellent entry today at VEB regarding the trade possibility with the White Sox for Mark Buehrle for Colby Rasmus and Chris Perez. He concluded that the price was too rich, even for the Cardinals blood, and that it was not a likely possibility. Call it Mark Mulder syndrome but I’m not 100% Jocketty would pass on an offer from Ken Williams. Just venting a little apprehension here. Later in the day, I was not at all thrilled to see rumor peddler extraordinaire Ken Robenthal made mention of both Cardinal prospects in his latest rumorpalooza round up.

Scouts rarely volunteer praise for Cardinals’ prospects, but Class AA outfielder Colby Rasmus and Class AA right-hander Chris Perez are exceptions. Rasmus, the 28th overall selection in the 2005 draft, is viewed by one scout as “a middle-of-the-order, above-average two-way player; everything he does, he does easy.” Perez, the 42nd overall pick in the 2006 draft, is a closer with a 100-mph fastball and plus slider, the scout says.

Now I’m seeing a sportwriter relaying word from a scout saying Perez throws 100? I’ve always heard he throws in the mid-nineties, 96 tops. Who’s saying this? Could it be a Cardinal scout? Was there a second shooter on the grassy knoll? Yes, I am being a little paranoid. Rosenbot is a channel for teams to cheaply advertise their wares. It’s been fun covering the farm system so far, but if Rasmus is traded I think my head will internally combust, which’ll make it hard to blog here anymore. I consider myself a bit of a pacifist, but I fear what DanUp will do to Mr. Jocketty should something go down. He will not be stopped, my friends. He will not be stopped. Here’s a brief sampling of previous DanUp comments here, the first regarding what Dan would do if they took Julio Borbon in the first round:

I will stab [Cardinal official who I’ll call blank] in the throat. I don’t want to do it, but I will do it.

I swear to god if the Cardinals draft another safe college pitcher in the first round I will break them.

Ladies and gentleman I give you Don DanUp, hit man for disgruntled Cardinal bloggers. Don’t do it, Walt.

Speaking of Springfield Cardinals and Cardinal bloggers, Dustin of Whiteyball has an on the spot report of a recent AA game he attended with thoughts on Perez and Rasmus, amongst others.

10 Things to Watch in 2007

As the new season draws ever so close, here’s 10 things I’ll be watching closely in the 2007 season:

1. How quickly can Colby adjust to AA? He was slow to get going both at the low and high A level last season. If he has a bad April I won’t worry too much, if he’s looking over matched after that I might start to worry a little.

2. Jaime Garcia’s strikeout rate. Garcia struck out a batter per inning for the Quad Cities, but only about 6 per 9 innings at Palm Beach. Reports were he was becoming too curve happy. Just reading Goold’s “Vuch Report”, early word is Garcia’s velocity is up a little this spring and he’s been getting lots of strikeouts in the exhibition games. Good news.

3. Chris Perez’s rapid ascension. He already pitched a nice inning this past Sunday, facing big leaguers Brian Roberts, Freddy Bynum and Melvin Mora, setting them down in order. He could now break camp at AA, with Sillman being his set up man. Watch his platoon split.

4. Speaking of platoon splits, watch Ottavino’s. 1.052 OPS against lefties at QC last season.

5. Bryan Anderson and “catcher fatigue syndrome” as John Sickels calls it. It can happen to any catcher, no matter how good he is. Just ask Jarrod Saltala…what’s his name.

6. Jon Jay. Lower minors all star or pro hitter? AA separates the men from the boys, and scouts and stat heads alike have their doubts about Jay despite his .342 average last season for QC.

7. Daryl Jones’s growth. For 2 seasons we’ve heard about his toolsiness, but now it’s time to see a little better results. He had a nice go at the Appy and all, I’m hungry for more.

8. Lambert. C’mon kid, no one likes to be remembered as a bust.

9. Tommy Pham. With a half decent season, he could surpass Jones’s prospect status as the resident “super tool-sy guy”. If he really hits, he could be a top 5er Cardinal in next years edition of the Baseball America Handbook. I won’t get too ahead of myself, just sayin’ is all.

10. Mark McCormick’s health. Can he come back from shoulder surgery and still throw in the high nineties?

Hey, rook!: Guys I wouldn’t be shocked to see get some MLB service time this season are Amaury “Bill Brasky” Cazana, Dennis Dove, Chris Perez and Brendan Ryan. Oh, and Rick Ankiel.

Terry Evans Award: Kooky prediction- Mike Ferris will wake up one day, find religion, learn to hit and get traded for a struggling pitcher who goes on to be a post season hero.

Hey, who’s that guy?: Jason Motte, ex-Yadier Molina-ish catcher (all arm/defense, no hit) now turned fireball reliever. He can hit 95 and has a surprising feel for his slider. Another who I guess has already surprised already, and could continue to do so: Nathan Southard.

Trade bait: Mark Hamilton. He’s not moving to the OF. As Gump has said, “that’s all I got to say about that.”

Hotlinks and mashed potatoes

lboros had an excellent interview with Jeff Luhnow. There’s some pretty interesting stuff there, including insight on the Cardinals mixed philosophy on their draft strategy of scouting and stats, drawing wisdom from the likes of Sig Mejdal (famous stat head from Sam Walker’s Fantasyland) and Joe Alvarez. Luhnow’s a very sharp guy, and there’s a chance he could be the GM once Walt decides to ride off into the sunset.

Huzzah! Chris Narveson cleared waivers He now will join the AAA roster and is a lock for the rotation along with Blake Hawksworth. I would’ve liked to see him get a better look this spring at the rotation, but them’s the breaks. I’m surprised no one scooped him up. Falkenborg also went down along with Narvie.

MLB.com has a full org spring training report.

It’s official, Rasmus and Jon Jay to break camp with the Springfield team. That’s pretty big news and I’m glad to see them both being aggressively promoted. Stavinoha, Gorecki, Cazana (the artist formerly known as Marti) could fill the other corner spot.

Jose Martinez is one of BA’s breakout candidates going into 2007:

The Cardinals rave about his instincts, and one source with the club calls him the best defensive infielder in the organization. The performance has been there with the bat since Martinez signed, so the only question is whether or not he’ll be able to stay at short. “He doesn’t have all the tools. He’s a below-average runner, for example, and that may mean he has below average range, but his hands are plus-plus,” a front-office official with an American League club said. “So taking the question in range into the equation, he’s likely a second baseman at best, a utility guy at worst. He has enough power to generate extra base hits and he has decent plate discipline.”

See Cardblogger Dan’s take on Nick Webber’s recent move back to the pen. He’s optimistic about the move, as am I.

The 26th Man is riled up about Chris Perez’s future.

Troy Cate has one nasty bruise.

Just when I was ready to bury Travis Hanson, he’s back.

Kevin Goldstein has his state of the NL Central prospects, and he’s pretty excited about Daryl Jones.

I Like Him Better Than Most: Also a candidate for the Jackson/Griffin award (ed note: tool-sy busts), I could be a complete sucker for outfielder Daryl Jones’ tools and ceiling, but the improvements he made from 2005 to 2006 were impressive, and his full-season debut is met with great anticipation.

He’s also pretty bearish on my personal prospect pet Jon Jay.

Ross Detwiler update: Detwiler saw his shutout disappear in a 3 run 8th inning against Northern Iowa, but his team rallied back to get the victory 4-3. He allowed 6 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs and struck out 12

My New Top Ten

In light of recent developments which I’ll discuss in a bit, here’s my latest “Top 10”, take it for what it’s worth:

1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Jon Jay
8. Tyler Greene
9. Dennis Dove
10. Cody Haerther

Rasmus and Garcia are still on top, Chris Perez soars up to #3. Reason being is the early word is he’s hitting 95 on the gun already in camp, and I read a very nice review from Carlos Gomez at BTF, who’s opinion I respect.

I’m higher on Bryan Anderson now then I was before due to his high UPSIDE scores and some good comps, though I’m worried about him contracting “young catcher stagnation syndrome” at some point.

Jon Jay goes to #7, but I still like him like him quite a bit. He’s in the Memphis camp right now, which shows me the Cardinals are quite serious about promoting him aggressively. We’ll see how he fares against stiffer competition. In case you missed it, Jeff Albert broke down his swing at VEB.

Dove shoots way up after making a very favorable impression in camp thus far, flashing a 97 mph 2 seamer. That begs me to ask- how fast he could throw a 4 seamer? Has he tried to throw it? I didn’t know he worked exclusively with the 2 seamer, you’d think he’d have at least a slightly higher GB% then 40% at Palm Beach. With the loss of Kinney, I’m rooting for Dove to break camp with the big club. Thus far he’s shown pretty good poise and command, and the Cardinals certainly could use a power arm in the pen.

Notably now off the list is Mark McCormick. McCormick has to undergo shoulder surgery to repair some debridement, and that ain’t good being that his main asset is his ability to throw hard. Without velocity, he’s nothing, we’ll have to see if he can rebound. Narrowly missing is Daryl Jones. I had a hard time shuffling between Jones, Hamilton and Haerther, but in the end it came down to Haerther having done more at higher levels. I guess I’m not all that high on Jones compared to others, his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling, but until he converts those tools into game usable skills I’m not super excited about him.

Detwiler Watch 3/10/07 and other stuff on Hawk, Ottavino and Perez

Ross Detwiler wasn’t quite as sharp as his usual self yesterday against the Golden Gophers of Minnesota. He pitched 7.1 innings, striking out 7 of the 29 batters he faced, but he also allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks. 2 of the runs were charged as earned. He also threw a wild pitch with runners on the corners, allowing a run to score. Missouri state was blanked, 4-0.

Matt Leach has a profile of the return of Blake Hawksworth.

Fanhome has an interview with play by play man David Kelly of the Memphis Redbirds.

Why didn’t I see this before? The chadbradfordwannabee of Bullpen Mechanics has his reviews on Chris Perez and Adam Ottavino based on their scouting videos at MLB.com:

On Ottavino:

I don’t see the “aggressiveness” that he has on the mound on his video. Decent arm action, but doesn’t use his body well enough for my liking. As a safe, polished pick, then he’s Ok. I don’t see massive upside with this pick, but I can see him dominate the lower levels before he plateaus at AA.

Grade: C+

Ottavino’s had a terrific start in the New York-Penn League with a 1.46 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings for State College.

On Perez:

Quick, powerful, compact arm action. I love this pick at 42. Good intent to throw. Gets out in front well enough. Like how late he breaks his hands.

Grade: B+

Perez has a 1.59 ERA in 6 relief appearances for the Quad Cities Swing.

Gomez goes on to rank put the pitchers in his own draft order based on talent, and has Perez at 14 and Ottavino at 32. Pretty bearish on overall for Ottavino and quite bullish re: Perez.

That’s all for now…

A last look at batted balls-Relievers

(EDIT: Chart now added, and embarrassing gramatical errors mostly fixed.)

One last go ’round, this time the relievers. There’s a lot of guys I decided not to bother with, whether it was playing time, the player is now elsewhere as in the cases of Rich Scalamandre and Cory Doyne, or I just plain figured it was a waste of time. I probably could’ve done without Chris Russ, former Yankee farmhand turned journeyman arm for hire, but he had that 60% groundball rate so I figured what the hey. I wasn’t going to figure in any short season guys but I read a chat transcript at Fanhome with John Vuch, Director of Minor League Operations and he picked Luke Gregorson as a potential sleeper. Once I saw that 65% groundball rate coupled with that insanely high K rate I just had to mention him. And now for the usual bullet-pointy thoughts:

• Some of you may remember Kevin Ool was the PTBNL we got from Boston in the Mike Myers trade. He certainly doesn’t miss bats, and he doesn’t have a platoon split you’d expect from a lefty reliever. However, he sure does keep the ball on the ground and he doesn’t walk guys. He virtually has no room for error but he’s worth halfway watching considering his control and his ability to get ground outs.
• Josh Kinney. How can you not root for this guy? From River City Rascal to postseason hero, he showed great poise and a freakish slider that made Met hitters look like fools. Great sinker/slider combo.
• Mike Sillman saved 35 games for Palm Beach this season. He’s a submariner, I’m not sure what to make of him until he pitches in Springfield. Between the tougher park and the tougher competion his true ability should be revealed. After watching 2 dominant performances in ’06 from sidearm/submariners Pat Neshek and Cla Meredith you sort of get excited about a player like Sillman, but he doesn’t have the resume the other two have and was quite old for his level. Still have to like the very high GB% and K per 9.
• Matt Scherer was another Palm Beach reliever who was very dominant at Palm Beach, but too old for his level. I worry about his fly ball tendencies and how that will effect what will happen to him in Springfield. He’s a huge guy at 6’5″, 230 and he struck out 106 while walking only 20 in 80 innings, he’s really thrived after being switched to relief. Scherer has a decent fastball with late life and a good slider that’s very tough on righties. He doesn’t throw from the windup and pitches at a 3/4 angle.
• Cairns was drafted in the 8th round of ’05 out of Central Michigan. He throws from a low 3/4 angle and relies heavily on his sinker, which he throws in the 90-94 mph range. That explains the high GB%. He improved a lot on his control this past season.
• 16% of the balls put in play against Andy Cavazos were infield flies, those are about as good as a strikeout. It can be a repeatable skill to induce weak pop ups for some pitchers, which makes Cavazos that much more of an intriguing bullpen option then he already is.

Prospects Ranked by Projected VORP

1.  Jon Jay
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Cody Haerther
5. Tyler Greene
6. Chris Narveson
7. Nick Stavinoha
8. Chris Perez

These are not necessarily how these prospects would rank in the organization, this is just how PECOTA judges their recent work to project how well the player would fare in the majors.

• Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus were separated by only one tenth of a point, though I’m sure we all agree that Rasmus has the higher ceiling. It’s pretty exciting that projects so well already. One of Rasmus’s top comps is the oft-rumored to be traded Lastings Milledge of the Mets’ system. Jay’s projected VORP was higher than any left fielder without major league experience. PECOTA thinks he could nearly hit .300 in the majors next year.
• Jaime Garcia’s projected VORP is higher then any other Cardinal starter not named Carpenter, Wainwright and Reyes (and Jeff Weaver, should he resign.) PECOTA believes Garcia would be a more valuable starter then Mark Mulder and Kip Wells by a full win above replacement.
• Cody Haerther’s VORP is about the same as Juan Encarnacion’s and higher then Preston Wilson’s.
• Despite his hacky-ness, Tyler Greene isn’t a full win less then Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein. That bodes well for his future, however one of his top comps was John Nelson, the soon to be 28 year old and two true outcome SS for Memphis, also a recent September call up.
• The rest: Narveson, Stavinoha and Perez are closer to replacement level.  Chris Perez is on the fast track and should be promoted aggressively. As a reliever, he doesn’t need to learn 2 or 3 new pitches like a starter, he just needs to get a little more experience. I expect Stavinoha to improve after being slowed by an ankle injury last season. Narveson is probably as big league ready as he’ll ever be. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’ll be exposed to waivers. Considering he’s a long shot to make the rotation and  the Nats are desperate for pitching, why not flip Narvie for Church straight up? It’s not like they are going to suddenly like Ryan Church. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

Also of note- Tagg Bozied, who was signed as a minor league free agent and is the owner of the best name ever is very close to Haerther’s projected VORP. Top prospects Bryan Anderson and Daryl Jones were forecasted way below replacement level, they are still pretty far from reaching their ceilings. Hawksworth, Lambert, Ottavino and McCormick were all forecasted to be below replacement level. Ex-Cardinal prospect Daric Barton’s projection wasn’t all that hot. I can’t say the same for Dan Haren.

Some (free) Q & A from the Birdhouse w/club officials

Found these juicy scoops at the Scout.com message boards. It’s an interview with John Mozeliak and Co. It’s free, there’s some very interesting info there regarding the big club too, so check it out.  Here’s some of the minors’ info:

Q: How is the development schedule of Colby Rasmus coming?
A: He’s a 5-tool player that is on a fast track. One of the reasons we signed Edmonds to a two-year extension is because we think Colby could be ready by 09. Many minor leaguers go backward a little or plateau for awhile when they are promoted as they adjust. Every time we have promoted Colby, after a week or so he adjusted and has been able to excel at the higher level right away.

Colby will be 22 in ’09, and if he has a good spring it he could start at AA this season. He’s added 20 pounds this winter.

Q: Are there any minor league players who could break through and play for the big club at any time this year?
A: The two players that are closest are Troy Cate and Andy Cavazos. Cate has done an extraordinary job opening our eyes and we are looking at him as both a starter and reliever. Cavazos is a big strong kid who is close to being ready for the major league bullpen. We are very also very pleased about the Cabrera signing – he can do a lot of things that give us flexibility. He has been in Japan for the past 2 years and is anxious to re-establish himself in the MLB.

I’m officially jumping on the Troy Cate Bandwagon. Cate is dominating the Mexican Winter League right now. The lefty is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA, striking out 24 and walking 9 in just under 30 innings. He’s being used primarily as a starter there, verses his normal relief role. His team, Venados de Mazaltan, is currently in the playoffs. He pitched 7 scoreless innings in his one postseason start.  Nice to see Cavazos get some recognition as well, here’s hoping he has a good spring. I didn’t forget to mention the Cabrera signing, I just don’t think he’ll make a difference. He’s this year’s Timo Perez.

Q: Are there any specific players on a fast track we should be watching this year?
A: Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, and Jon Jay. Boggs is very solid. Garcia has been a real delight. He was overweight and out of shape when we drafted him. Went to the Dominican League, got into a conditioning program, and looks great now. Fastball is in the 92-93 range and he has an outstanding breaking pitch. He is the real deal. Jon Jay is an outstanding prospect. We may do the same thing with Jay that we did with Stavinoha – jump him right to Springfield this year.

I’ve felt Boggs has been overlooked by a lot of people, but he hasn’t been overlooked by the higher ups. Not suprised to see Jay is making the jump to AA, and calling him outstanding is certainly a nice compliment. I’m really beginning to like Jay more and more.

Q: Can you rate our 3 best closing prospects – Worrell, Sillman, and Perez?
A: Worrell has a very unorthodox, goofy delivery. We don’t know whether it will relate to success at the major league level. Sillman is kind of the same way with an unorthodox sidearm delivery. Both of them might make it some day, but probably not as closers. Perez is a different story. He has electric stuff and hits 95. Big, strong kid. He should come through the system very fast. He could be 2 years away at the inside. 3 years is a good bet.

Well, that was candid on Worrell. I’m a lot more sold on Sillman, though I think he’s middle of the bullpen, situational type guy. We’ll have to see how well he fairs once out of the pitchers paradise that is Roger Dean. A lot of people have been putting Perez in the ’07 bullpen, but it looks like the Cardinals will give him more seasoning then that.

That’s all I’ll post, go and check it out for yourself for more interesting tidbits.